- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for August was -4K versus estimates of 100K and a downwardly revised 68K in July.
- The Unemployment Rate for August came in at 4.6% versus estimates of 4.6% and 4.6% in July.
- Average Hourly Earnings for August rose .3% versus estimates of a .3% gain and a .3% rise in July.
- Wholesale Inventories for July rose .2% versus estimates of a .4% gain and a downwardly revised .3% increase in June.
BOTTOM LINE: The US economy unexpectedly lost jobs in August for the first time in four years, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates at its Sept. 18 meeting, Bloomberg reported. The 10-year yield is falling 14 basis points to 4.37%. Manufacturers, builders and the government led the drop in payrolls. Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, added 60,000 jobs last month. Average weekly hours held steady at 33.8. As well, Average Weekly Earnings rose to $591.50 in August, up from $589.81 in July. Moreover, Average Hourly Earnings rose 3.9% year-over-year, almost twice most measures of inflation. While the labor market is going through a near-term transition, the unemployment rate is still historically low. Next month will likely show further weakness, however I still expect the job market to remain healthy over the intermediate-term.
Inventories at US wholesalers rose less than forecast in July, Bloomberg reported. Sales at wholesalers gained .1%. Companies had goods on hand to last just 1.11 months at the current sales pace, the same as June. I continue to believe inventory rebuilding will help boost overall US economic growth over the intermediate-term as companies gain confidence in the sustainability of the current expansion.
No comments:
Post a Comment