Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Total assets of US money market mutual funds rose to another all-time high of $2.73 trillion this week.
- AstraZeneca Plc, the UK’s second-largest pharmaceutical company, sold $6.9 billion of bonds in the biggest US debt offering in more than five years
- The Reserve Bank of Australia has widened the range of securities it’s willing to buy in so-called repurchase agreements in order to boost the amount of money available in the nation’s banking system.
- Former Senator Fred Thompson said he’s getting in the race for the Republican presidential nomination after six months of flirting with a run.
- Yoshio Ishizaka, senior adviser to the board of Toyota Motor(TM), says subprime impact on auto sales is limited.

MarketWatch.com:
- Stock volume has triggered 3 rare technical events, and all are bullish.

USAToday.com:
- Federal regulators appear set to crack down on cable companies that sign exclusive deals with apartment and condominium buildings, denying residents the fruits of emerging pay-TV competition.

CNNMoney.com:
- John Deere’s(DE) renewable energy harvest.
- Cisco reaffirms outlook on strong demand.

Economic Times:
- Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. has submitted a non-binding preliminary bid to buy Bradley Pharmaceuticals(BDY).

Financial Times:
- Silicon Valley’s annual coming-out season for tech start-ups is about to turn into a stampede. In the next few weeks, the wraps will be removed from some 150 new companies and products at a handful of events in California competing to identify the tech industry’s Next Big Thing.
- Hedge funds, private equity groups and investment banks are raising billions of dollars to buy leveraged loans in the belief that banks will have to sell $250 billion of debt on the cheap.

London-based Times:
- Speculators in the carry trade put the growth prospects of the developing world at risk and are a bigger threat to stability than the current credit crunch, citing the annual report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development.
- Hedge funds suffered one of their worst performances last month since the collapse of Long Term Capital Management in 1998, data from Hedge Fund Research show.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Today, Citi hosted an upbeat investor meeting with (RATE) CEO Tom Evans. Evans said 1) Advertiser demand remains strong 2) August traffic was the best of the year (August is typically average) 3) Less than 1% of RATE’s clicks are related to sub-prime, and RATE continues to see strong demand for prime mortgages 4) RATE’s deposit business remains strong (46% of total revenue in Q2, surpassing mortgages for the first time) and 5) RATE continues to see strong tailwinds due to the continued migration of advertising online.
- Upgraded (PTV) to Buy, target $37.

Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (COGN), target $50.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.23%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CPB)/.18
- (CAE)/1.05
- (COO)/.70
- (FLE)/-.08
- (HOV)/-1.00
- (ISLE)/.13
- (JTX)/-.46
- (KWD)/.34
- (KFY)/.36
- (MOV)/.42
- (NSM)/.25
- (ZQK)/.02
- (UTIW)/.28
- (PAY)/.40

Upcoming Splits
- (MTW) 2-for-1
- (MDR) 2-for-1
- (NVDA) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- Final 2Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to rise 2.4% versus a prior estimate of a 1.8% increase.
- Final 2Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise 1.5% versus a prior estimate of a 2.1% gain.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 330K versus 334K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2575K versus 2579K prior.

10:00 am EST
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for August is estimated to fall to 54.5 versus 55.8 in July.

10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil drawdown of -2,200,000 barrels versus a -3,486,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to fall by -1,300,000 barrels versus a -3,667,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to rise by 1,000,000 barrels versus an 889,000 barrel increase the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.25% versus a -1.36% decline the prior week.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Yellen speaking, Fed’s Kroszner speaking, Fed’s Lockhart speaking, Fed’s Fisher speaking, ICSC Chain Store Sales, ECB Policy Meeting, (JNPR) investor gathering, (MDP) analyst day, (ARG) analyst meeting, (MIL) analyst meeting, (TPX) analyst meeting, (NCC) analyst conference, Cowen Clean Energy Conference, Thomas Weisel Healthcare Conference, CSFB Global Automotive Conference, Kaufman Brothers Investor Conference, Citigroup Tech Conference, Lehman Brothers Energy Conference, Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference, the Lehman Brothers Consumer Conference, Needham HDD Investor Day and the Morgan Keegan Equity Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by automaker and financial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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