- Initial Jobless Claims for this week fell to 322K versus estimates of 340K and 337K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims fell to 2702K versus estimates of 2730K and 2754K prior.
- Wholesale Inventories for November rose .6% versus estimates of a .4% gain and unch. in October.
BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell 15,000 this week to a two-month low, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving average of new claims fell to 341,000 from 344,000 the prior week. The unemployment rate among those eligible to collect benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, fell to a historically low 2.0% from 2.1% the prior week. This is a very positive data point. As well, the National Retail Federation said that total sales for November and December combined rose 4% this past holiday season, which is better-than-expected and not the disaster that is being portrayed in the financial press today. A huge crack in the imminent recession thesis will develop should jobless claims stay around these levels over the next couple of weeks, as I suspect. I continue to believe the job market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor cost increases.
Inventories at US wholesalers rose more than forecast in November and sales jumped, Bloomberg reported. Sales rose 2.2%, the most since September 2005. The increase in sales brought the supply of goods on hand down to 1.07 months, the lowest in US history. The rise in stockpiles was led by a 2.6% jump in petroleum products and a 2.3% increase in autos. I continue to believe manufacturing will help boost US economic growth over the intermediate-term as companies gain confidence in the sustainability of the current expansion and rebuild depleted inventories as a result of booming exports.
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