Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Stocks Lower into Final Hour, Weighed Down by Tech, Financial and Homebuilding Shares

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs, Medical longs and Semi longs. I added to my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The overall tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 2.5% today to a high 29.0. The ISE Sentiment Index is a very low 84.0 and the total put/call is hitting an above average 1.02. Finally, the NYSE Arms is above-average at 1.4. The ongoing weakness in many large-cap growth leaders is worrisome. I will closely monitor the market’s reaction to Cisco’s report after the close before lifting market exposure. Nikkei futures indicate a -10 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -50 open in Germany. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as bargain-hunting, falling energy prices and short-covering offsets ongoing economic pessimism.

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