Monday, February 25, 2008

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- MBIA Inc.(MBI) seeking to stave off a crippling credit rating downgrade, will stop writing guarantees on asset-backed securities for six months and will separate that business from its municipal unit within five years.
- Iran won’t suspend uranium enrichment as demanded in a proposed UN Security Council resolution set for a vote this week, Iran’s ambassador said.
- Tiffany(TIF) rose the most in more than two weeks in NY trading as investors speculated that LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, the world’s largest luxury-goods maker, may make a bid to buy it.

- PIMCO’s Bill Gross said the firm is buying US AA, A-rated corporate bonds.

MarketWatch.com:
- Foreign buyers eye US homes.
- As the stalemate over Microsoft’s bid to buy Yahoo Inc.(YHOO) enters is third week, some analysts are already pointing to a winner in the impasse: Google Inc.(GOOG).
- A slate of dark films nominated for this year’s Academy Awards casts a pall over the Oscar ceremony, with the telecast turning in the lowest ratings in its history, according to data released Monday by ABC.
- Top market-timers still bullish. Their confidence bodes well for stocks intermediate-term.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Why Cisco(CSCO) Is a Buy.
- Google(GOOG) Now Britain’s Top Tech Brand. The Web search giant climbed from the No. 5 position it held in the Superbrands rankings a year ago, surpassing Microsoft(MSFT) and the BBC.

CNNMoney.com:
- Ivy League university – latest major college to give parents a break – to give grants to families making less than $100,000 and drop tuition for those under $60,000.

Forbes.com:
- Nielsen Online said Monday Google(GOOG) topped January’s search rankings with 4.22 billion queries, or a 56.9% share. Yahoo(YHOO) came in second for the month with 1.41 billion searches, or a 19% share, followed by Microsoft’s(MSFT) MSN/Windows Live with a 12.1% share.
- Hedge funds still pose a potential systemic risk to the economy, despite having improved their management and disclosure practices, according to a study released Monday by US congressional investigators.

Reuters:
- Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin on Monday defended the central bank’s emphasis on core inflation, saying an emphasis on less volatile prices produces a stronger economy in the long run.

Financial Times:
- Opprobrium was poured on Hillary Clinton’s campaign on Monday amid allegations that an aide had circulated a photograph showing Barack Obama dressed as a Somali Muslim elder.
- US share prices staged a late rally on Monday after S&P’s affirmed the top-notch credit ratings of beleaguered bond insurers MBIA(MBI) and Ambac(ABK) and said MBIA was no longer at risk of a downgrade.

TimesOnline:
- The latest buying opportunity. If a bailout for the bond insurers is finalized, this could well mark the turning point in the global financial crisis. In terms of market psychology, the view that “this crisis is different from every other” is really just an echo of the cry “this time is different” that is always heard at the top of a bull market.

Financial Post:
- Web sites in the Google(GOOG) family have finally taken the top spot in the comScore Canadian web rankings.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (JWN), raised target to $45.
- Reiterated Buy on (CVH), target $74.
- Added (CSCO) to Recommended List.
- Reiterated Buy on (HON), target $70.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.07%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (EP)/.29
- (FWLT)/.76
- (HD)/.43
- (NBL)/1.62
- (ODP)/.17
- (RSH)/.72
- (AZO)/1.62
- (CBS)/.51
- (KBR)/.32
- (ESV)/1.55
- (FTO)/.47
- (TGT)/1.22
- (DISH)/.47
- (KWK)/.24
- (HNZ)/.67
- (PZZA)/.43
- (DWA)/.72
- (OSG)/.58
- (ADSK)/.54
- (BID)/1.45
- (DPZ)/.27
- (FMCN)/.49
- (M)/1.61
- (CBRL)/.70

Upcoming Splits
- (RBN) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- The Producer Price Index for January is estimated to rise .4% versus a -.3% decline in December.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for January is estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% increase in December.

10:00 am EST
- Consumer Confidence for February is estimated to fall to 82.0 versus a reading of 87.9 in January.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Kohn speaking, weekly retail sales reports, S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, (SO) analyst meeting, (NICE) analyst meeting, (XTO) analyst conference, HIMSS Conference, BMO Global Metals/Mining Conference, CSFB Global Services Conference, Goldman Sachs Tech Symposium and Merrill Communications Services Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by real estate and financial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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