Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Japan’s export growth unexpectedly quickened for the first time in three months. Exports, which contributed almost half of the economy’s expansion last quarter, rose 7.7% in January from a year earlier after increasing 6.9% in December, the Finance Ministry said.
- Hertz Global(HTZ), North America’s second largest car-rental company, said fourth-quarter profit doubled.
- MBIA Inc.(MBI) said today that an initial review of the recommendations for a restructuring of the financial guarantors as prepared by Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management, LP and presented to the NY State Insurance Dept. is no more credible than his flawed open source model.
- Ethanol made from sugar-cane will provide as much as 15% of Brazil’s energy needs within 15 years, the president of Brazil’s Sugar Cane Industry Assoc. said.
- Chindia Lust Sees Commonsense Go Out the Window. The draw of cheap Chinese and Indian labor is so strong, and the media hype surrounding it so relentless, that some starry-eyed, developed-country executives are losing sight of the bottom line.
- The yen traded near a three-week low against the euro after a rally in Asian stocks restored confidence in buying higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
- NetEase.com Inc.(NTES) and Sina Corp.(SINA) rose in US after-hours trading as surging Web usage in China spurred sales of online games and advertising in the world’s second-biggest Internet market by users.
- Terex Corp.(TEX), the world’s third-largest maker of construction equipment, said fourth-quarter earnings rose 72%. The profit and 2008 forecast topped analysts’ estimates, and Terex gained 6.4% in after-hours trading.
- Synopsys Inc.(SNPS), a world leader in software and IP for semiconductor design and manufacturing, said first quarter revenue rose 5.1% from year-ago levels. The shares jumped 6.4% in extended trading.
- Analog Devices(ADI), the maker of chips for communications-equipment companies such as Cisco Systems(CSCO), said first-quarter profit more than doubled after it sold two businesses. The shares rose 4% in after-hours trading.

Wall Street Journal:
- Poterba Succeeds Feldstein at Recession Caller NBER.

NY Times:
- California business schools are taking global education to a new level, offering courses that go beyond case studies and collaborating with universities abroad, particularly in Asia.

BusinessWeek.com:
- The Dawn of Green Mobile Networks. Escalating oil prices are pushing operators to use alternative energies to power cellular base stations in remote areas of the world.
- Activists Target the ‘Genocide Olympics’ Saying China’s oil purchases support violence in Darfur, human-rights groups are pressuring McDonald’s(MCD) and other sponsors of the Games.
- What Downturn? IT Pros Upbeat on Work. A new survey shows tech workers remain in demand and few are worried about where the next job will come from.

Portfolio.com:
- Chart of the day: Jerome Kerviel’s real P&L at SocGen.

denverpost.com:
- ConocoPhillips(COP) has purchased the former StorageTek campus in Louisville and plans to use the site as its global learning and technology center. The Houston-based company intends to use the property as part of a major push surrounding renewable energy, Gov. Bill Ritter said.

USA Today.com:
- Best cities for bargain housing: Salt Lake City, Raleigh. Property sharks looking to take advantage of local housing slumps are doing their best to time the market, searching for the precise moment when prices bottom out before taking a bite.
- New Chinese investors learn tough stock lessons.

Reuters:
- Microsoft(MSFT) Xbox Live aims to double user base.
- Clinton attacks Obama as all talk, little substance.

Arab News:
- A well-regarded Saudi religious scholar said that there is nothing in Islamic law that bans women from driving and that the fatwas issued in this regard are based on individual judgments.

Economic Daily News:
- AU Optronics(AUO), the world’s third biggest LCD maker, may raise liquid-crystal display prices next month because of “tight” supply of panels, citing COO Chen Lai-juh. AU Optronics stopped cutting LCD prices for clients this month, he said.

China Daily:
- China’s inflation rate may slow “notably” from the middle of the year, citing a government researcher. Price gains may cool as food supplies increase and the effects of the nation’s snowstorms diminish.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Upgraded (CSCO) to Buy, target $27.
- Reiterated Buy on (ADI), target $37.
- Maintained Buy on (TJX), target $38.
- Downgraded (TGT) to Sell, target $48.
- Reiterated Buy on (WMT), target raised to $57.
- Core US search engine query growth accelerated in January up 23% Y/Y and up 9% M/M. This marks a rebound vs. the query growth deceleration we observed in November and December and compare favorably vs. Q4 search query growth of 20% Y/Y. GOOG’s US market share increased 10 bps M/M to 58.5%(up 590 bps Y/Y). Excluding the impact of DNS Error Searches no included in core MSFT, AOL, and Ask search results, Google share gains would have been modestly higher. Following a slight “hiccup” in December query share, we view this as a positive datapoint for GOOG which continues to grow materially faster than the overall market(GOOG US queries up 37% Y/Y, vs. market up 23%). YHOO’s share declined 70 bps M/M to 22.2%, and represents the lowest % share we have tracked. Excluding the impact of DNS Error Searches, Yahoo!’s share loss would have been somewhat less. In addition to the M/M share loss, the increase of nearly 2% Y/Y remains materially behind the overall market’s 23% Y/Y January growth rate.. MSFT share was 9.8%, flat M/M; however, the inclusion of DNS Error Searches in its core search results added modestly to January results, suggesting an organic, modest market share loss in the month. MSFT’s query growth accelerated from 8% Y/Y growth in December to nearly 16% Y/Y growth in January.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +2.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.25%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (PWR)/.13
- (EME)/.66
- (DGX)/.78
- (WMB)/.48
- (DNR)/.35
- (EV)/.49
- (RS)/1.04
- (RUTH)/.21
- (WBMD)/.29
- (CHK)/.81
- (CLF)/1.54
- (INTU)/.37
- (FST)/.76
- (ESRX)/.64
- (MORN)/.43
- (SWY)/.68
- (JCP)/1.76
- (WCG)/1.62
- (ZLC)/1.11
- (NEM)/.41
- (MGM)/.43
- (FIG)/.20

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for this week are estimated to rise to 349K versus 348K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2760K versus 2761K prior.

10:00 am EST
- Philly Fed for February is estimated to rise to -10.0 versus -20.9 in January.
- Leading Indicators for January are estimated to fall .1% versus a .2% decline in December.

10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil build of 2,300,000 barrels versus a 1,066,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by 450,000 barrels versus a 1,749,000 barrel build the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,800,000 barrels versus a -166,000 barrel decline the prior week. Refinery Utilization is expected to remain unch. versus a .74% increase the prior week. Finally, Natural Gas supplies are expected to fall by -173 bcf versus a -120 withdrawal the prior week.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The (SVR) analyst meeting, (CR) analyst conference, (CBE) investor meeting, (MDZ) analyst meeting, CIBC Institutional Investor Conference, DA Davidson Electronic System Design Conference, Oppenheimer Semi Summit, Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference, Susquehanna Footwear Conference, EnerCom Oil Service Conference, Roth Capital Growth Stock Conference and Longbow Construction Materials Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.