Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Existing Home Sales Slightly Exceed Estimates, Weekly Retail Sales Confirm Last Week's Improvement

- Existing Home Sales for March came in at 4.93M versus estimates of 4.92M and 5.03M in February.

BOTTOM LINE: Sales of previously owned homes in the US fell in March less than economists had anticipated, Bloomberg reported. The median sales price fell to $200,700 from $217,400 a year earlier. The number of homes for sale at the current pace rose to 9.9 months’ worth versus 9.6 months’ worth in February. Purchases rose 2.2% in the Northeast and the West. They fell 6.5% in the Midwest and 3.5% in the South. Sales of condos and co-ops rose 3.6%. Residential construction has subtracted from economic growth since the first three months of 2006. Home sales have stabilized over the last month around current levels, which is a large positive. According to BankRate.com, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is falling 7 basis points today to 5.83%, which is down from 6.38% in June of last year. Weekly retail sales rose 1.9% this week versus a 2.0% gain the prior week. This week’s gain confirms the improvement seen last week. After averaging .6% increases during the month of February, weekly retail sales have seen a meaningful improvement, averaging 1.95% the last two weeks. This is especially noteworthy considering how pessimistic the consumer supposedly is and the stimuli that is on the horizon. I still expect home sales to bounce higher over the coming months on lower mortgage rates, lower prices, pent-up demand and less economic angst.

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