Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) reported a 36% jump in profit, topping estimates, on sales of Macintosh computers. The profit margin in the quarter and the forecast for the current period missed projections, sending the shares $.50 lower to $162.31 in after-hours trading.
- Amazon.com(AMZN) said earnings rose on electronics sales and forecast profit margins less than its projection in January, sending the shares lower in late Nasdaq trading.
- Starbucks(SBUX) forecast its first annual profit decline in eight years as sales at US stores slowed, causing the shares to drop 11% in late Nasdaq trading.
- Soaring global food prices may prompt investors to buy default protection on Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines on the risk governments will raise subsidies to stave off political unrest, according to ING Bank NV.

Wall Street Journal:
- Steve Ballmer says Microsoft(MSFT) is willing to go it alone rather than buy Yahoo Inc.(YHOO). And he has a reason besides opposition from the Internet company: skepticism among his own employees.
- Indiana Poses Challenges for Each of the Democrats.
- The Federal Reserve is likely to cut short-term rates by a quarter of a percentage point next week – but then may be ready for a breather.

MarketWatch.com:
- Economists say euro-zone may be losing decoupling fight.

CNBC.com:
- Private Equity’s Mountain of Dry Powder.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Speculators Worsening World Food Crisis? Biofuels and droughts can’t fully explain the recent shortages – hedge funds, index funds, pension funds and investment banks bear part of the blame. Financial investors now hold the rights to two complete annual harvests of a type of grain traded in Chicago called “soft red winter wheat.” “The enormous influx of capital has resulted in the futures markets no longer reflecting supply and demand,” says Todd Kemp of the US National Grain and Feed Assoc. The whole thing demands an “ethical discussion.” From the srtandpoint of these investors, poor harvests that drive up prices are only good for their portfolios. Many investors either don’t care or are simply oblivious to the fact that by investing in the global casino, they could be gambling away the daily food supply of the world’s poorest people. (very good article)

FINalternatives:
- 20-Year-Old Preps Global Macro/Stat. Arb Hedge Fund.

CNNMoney.com:
- A strong case for market optimism. Believe it or not – you have several good reasons to believe the sky isn’t falling. In fact, it may be clearing up.

USA Today.com:
- Foreign buyers snap up US real estate. Real estate agents are increasingly courting foreigners to buy homes in the USA – hiring agents fluent in other languages, marketing to foreign buyers and in some cases, offering to pay the airfare and hotel bills of foreign shoppers who buy a home.

Reuters:
- Russell Read is resigning as chief investment officer of Calpers, the biggest US pension fund, a fund spokesman said on Wednesday.

Financial Times:
- CIC raises global spending power. China’s $200bn sovereign wealth fund now has as much as $90bn to spend on assets abroad, an increase of more than 30% on its original allocation, its president and chief investment officer told western bankers in Beijing on Wednesday.
- Deutsche Bank is preparing another multibillion-dollar sale of leveraged loans on its books, adding to the evidence of a rally in corporate credit markets.
- Investor fears over failures by big banks have receded sharply in recent weeks, pricing trends in the credit derivatives markets have revealed. Over the past five weeks the cost of protecting the senior debt of the 25 European banks in the iTraxx Financials index has fallen from 160 basis points to 61.5bp, according to Markit Group.

South China Morning Post:
- China’s Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan has called for further monetary tightening, citing a speech to an internal meeting of central bankers.

The Economic Times:
- A US biotech company is teaming up with Brazilian ethanol producers to turn sugarcane into diesel fuel in a joint venture that could churn out 3.8 billion liters a year by 2015, executives announced.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (TER), target $17.
- Reiterated Buy on (SPNC), target $17.
- Upgraded (RE) to Buy, target $113.
- Reiterated Buy on (FFIV), target $30.
- Reiterated Buy on (ATI), target $97.
- Reiterated Buy on (EQIX), target $120.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.22%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.56%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (SWK)/.88
- (TRV)/1.53
- (DO)/2.15
- (IMCL)/1.32
- (RCL)/.28
- (HSY)/.39
- (SWY)/.32
- (HOT)/.25
- (LH)/1.14
- (OXY)/1.96
- (MMM)/1.35
- (LLL)/1.51
- (NEM)/.54
- (FO)/.77
- (NOC)/.63
- (BMY)/.41
- (BDK)/1.14
- (AET)/.92
- (WHR)/1.70
- (DOW)/.95
- (KLIC)/.01
- (F)/-.15
- (RTN)/.84
- (MOT)/-.06
- (ZMH)/1.04
- (PEP)/.70
- (EDS)/.05
- (COP)/2.42
- (MO)/.36
- (CAKE)/.21
- (KLAC)/.65
- (WFR)/.88
- (JNPR)/.25
- (IM)/.39
- (CB)/1.55
- (MFE)/.45
- (GNW)/.63
- (SAF)/1.44
- (AMGN)/1.05
- (WDC)/1.09
- (MSFT)/.44
- (BIDU)/4.18
- (AXP)/.80
- (CF)/2.14
- (DECK)/.76
- (AVID)/.11
- (AN)/.34
- (TRA)/.83
- (SY)/.34

Upcoming Splits
- (RBA) 3-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Durable Goods Orders for March are estimated to rise .1% versus a -1.1% decline in February.
- Durables Ex Transports for March are estimated to rise .5% versus a -2.4% decline in February.
- Initial Jobless Claims for this week are estimated to rise to 375K versus 372K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2990K versus 2984K prior.

10:00 am EST
- New Home Sales for March are estimated to fall to 580K versus 590K in February.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The JPMorgan China Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.