Consumer Sentiment Lowest Since 1982, Right Before Major Bull Move Higher in Stocks

- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for April fell to 62.6 versus estimates of 63.2 and a prior estimate of 63.2.

BOTTOM LINE: US consumer confidence fell more than forecast in April to a 26-year low, Bloomberg reported. The Consumer Expectations component of the index fell to 53.3 from 60.1 the prior month. The Current Conditions component of the index fell to 77 from 84.2 the prior month. This gauge of consumer sentiment is now at the lowest level since March 1982. During August 1982 the S&P 500 began a major bull move that took the index 2,301.41% higher through March of 2000, which was an annualized equivalent total return of 19.7% a year. The drawn out Democratic primary is likely weighing on consumer sentiment more than is generally perceived. I still think consumer sentiment has seen its lows and will trend higher through year-end as stocks rise, the US dollar strengthens, energy/food prices fall, inflation decelerates, the job market improves, election uncertainty ends, the American Axle strike ends, extreme housing fears subside, credit turmoil ends and interest rates remain relatively low.