Thursday, July 03, 2008

Stocks Finishing Mostly Lower on Global Growth Worries, Record Energy Prices

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Computer longs and Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is mildly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bearish. The VIX is falling 3.97% and is above average at 24.89. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 133.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.17. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running below average most of the day and is currently .81. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is down 1.82% today to 93.71 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20th. The TED spread is falling 3.1% to .95. The AAII % Bulls fell to 23.93% this week and the % Bears fell to 52.14%. Pessimism is exceptionally bearish once again. The strong US dollar rally is a big positive. I expect it to build on today’s gains next week. Nikkei futures indicate an +95 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +47 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on global growth worries and record energy prices. I hope everyone has a good holiday weekend. Thanks for reading.

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