Monday, July 07, 2008

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Concerns, Financial Sector Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Computer longs, Medical longs and Commodity shorts. I added to my (QQQQ)/(IWM) hedges and then covered some of them today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mildly negative as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, most sectors are rising and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is rising 1.21% and is high at 25.09. The ISE Sentiment Index is very low at 87.0 and the total put/call is very high at 1.24. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day and is currently .99. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is down 1.67% today to 93.92 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 1.05% today to 145.68, which is also a positive. However, the TED spread is rising 2.34% to .98. Market-leading growth stocks are especially strong today. Insider buying was brisk again last week, especially in the technology, communication, financial and utility sectors. ETM, DKS, VR, EBTX, RPSD, MAQ, CPRT, CSE, EPD, EQY, WAL, ESGR, LCAPA and DELL were securities with significant insider buys last week. Nikkei futures indicate an +95 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +10 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower energy prices and bargain-hunting.

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