North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.79 bps -1.48%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.24 bps +1.87%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 65.58 bps -3.08%
Emerging Market CDS Index 216.58 bps -2.20%
2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 bps unch.
TED Spread 12.0 bps +1 basis point
Economic Gauges:
3-Month T-Bill Yield .14% unch.
Yield Curve 274.0 bps -3 bps
Copper Days Demand 15.07 days -.40%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +36.1 +10.1 points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27% +2 bps
Overseas Futures:
Nikkei Futures: Indicating +34 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany
Portfolio:
Slightly Higher: On strength in my Retail and Tech long positions
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bearish as the major averages are stalling near technical resistance despite a positive retail sales report. On the positive side, (IYR) has traded well throughout the day again, gaining +.64%. Retail, REIT, Paper, Oil Service, Ag, Oil Tanker and Coal shares are especially strong, rising .50%+. The Greece sovereign cds is falling another -4.5% today and the euro is bouncing on further short-covering. (GE) is surging +3.0% on heavy volume over the last hour, which is helping to lift the major averages a bit. On the negative side, Homebuilding, Disk Drive and HMO stocks are meaningfully lower on the day. Shanghai copper inventories are up another +9.4% today and are up +38.5% in five days. Stocks are stalling near resistance, are overbought and sentiment is a bit too bullish. However, with fundamentals improving, I suspect we will continue to churn over the near-term rather than see a significant pullback. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower long-term rates, declining energy prices and less economic fear.
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