Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Monday, March 01, 2010
Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing Sovereign Debt Angst,, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Lower Energy Prices
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Medical longs, Biotech longs and Retail longs. I added a commodity short and added to several existing longs(including HGSI) this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, most sectors are rising and volume is slightly above average. Investor angst is very high. Today's overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling -.21% and is around average at 19.47. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 95.0 and the total put/call is above average at .98. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 1.40 at it intraday peak, and is currently 1.1. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -3.21% to 87.42 basis points. The North American Investment Grade CDS Index is falling -2.74% to 89.68 basis points. The TED Spread is unch. at 14.0 basis points. The 2-Year Swap Spread is rising +1.49% to 24.49 basis points. The Libor-OIS Spread is up +1 basis point to 10.0 basis points. The 10-Year TIPS Spread is up +1 basis point to 2.16%. The 3-Month T-Bill is yielding .12%, which is up +1 basis point today. Bank shares are relatively weak today. (XLF) has been a bit heavy throughout the day. The euro is under pressure again, despite a jump in eurozone stocks, a meaningful drop in sovereign cds, record net shorts in the currency and optimism over Greece's debt situation. On the positive side, Airline, Biotech, Disk Drive, Semi, Computer, Steel and Coal shares are especially strong, rising 2.0%+. Market leading stocks are outperforming. As well, "growth" stocks, especially small-caps, are strongly outperforming "value" shares. U.S. small-cap growth shares should continue to outperform over the intermediate-term on a firm-to-higher dollar and more muted global growth expectations. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is dropping another -6.85%, which is also a big positive. Two of my previously disclosed longs, (CREE) and (ISRG) are hitting new 52-week highs today. CREE is also at a record high and ISRG is very near that hurdle. I would still be a buyer of both on any meaningful market-related pullback in the shares from current levels. My (GOOG) long has undperformed of late. Its CFO just said the their mobile opportunity is exploding. I think the stock is currently very attractive at current levels. Nikkei futures indicate an +73 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a down -5 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, technical buying, less economic fear, declining euro sovereign debt angst, lower energy prices and stable long-term rates.
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