Thursday, March 10, 2011

Thursday Watch


Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Qaddafi Strikes Oil Targets as Libya's East-West Split Hardens. Muammar Qaddafi’s forces carried out air and artillery strikes on oil facilities midway along Libya’s coastline as fighting flared across a desert area that is now the east-west dividing line in the nation’s civil war. Warplanes sent from Qaddafi’s home region of Sirte struck the Ras Lanuf refinery, the country’s largest crude processing plant, Al Jazeera television said. The nation’s largest oil terminal, at the port of Sidra, was hit and part was in flames, Al Jazeera said. “With the violence escalating, it was a question of time when oil facilities would be drawn into the fighting,” Samuel Ciszuk, senior Middle East energy analyst at IHS Global Insight in London, said in a phone interview. “To dislodge opposition forces, you need to take these facilities. That would entail hitting some.” The geographic split, with rebels in the east and Qaddafi controlling the west, may result in a partition of the country, said Ryan Crocker, a former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Kuwait and Lebanon. “Qaddafi’s going to hang on,” Crocker said in a speech at CERAWeek, an IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference in Houston. “I’m not sure whether he can hold the country, but I am sure that the insurgents aren’t going to take him.” In a recorded speech aired yesterday on state television, Qaddafi called on people in the eastern city of Benghazi, the rebels’ stronghold, to “liberate” themselves from the “traitors” forming the opposition’s ruling council and from Islamist fighters from Afghanistan, Egypt and Algeria who he blamed for the uprising. Libya’s criminal investigations authority is offering a 500,000 dinar ($407,000) reward for any person who arrests the head of the Benghazi-based rebel council, former Justice Minister Moustafa Abdel Jalil, state television reported. More than 400 people have been killed and 2,000 wounded in fighting in eastern Libya since Feb. 17, a member of the insurgents’ provisional health committee told reporters yesterday in Benghazi.
  • NATO Members Weighing Libya No-Fly Zone May Face Resistance. NATO countries are seeking to overcome divisions on a no-fly zone to ground Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s air force and forge a response to the fighting there that stops short of military involvement. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 28 defense ministers are meeting in Brussels today where they’ll discuss military options in response to Qaddafi’s aerial and artillery attacks against rebel-held positions. While countries such as the U.K. and France have urged NATO allies to consider a no-fly zone, with the U.S. less enthusiastic, Germany and other nations have expressed concern about the consequences. “If you support this as an action plan, it basically engages NATO members militarily in Libya,” Josef Janning, the director of studies at the European Policy Centre in Brussels, said in an interview. A no-fly zone “requires that an air defense must be neutralized, requires that you actually physically prevent the Libyan military from using its airbases.”
  • Cattle Rally to Record as Export Demand Increases, Boosting Wal-Mart(WMT) Costs. Cattle futures jumped to a record in Chicago as rising demand for U.S. beef erodes supplies of animals for slaughterhouses and boosts meat costs for food retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. The U.S. cattle herd is the smallest since 1958 as beef exports surged 19 percent in 2010 to about 2.3 billion pounds (1.04 million metric tons), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Cattle prices have jumped 27 percent in the past year, fueled by a global economic recovery that is boosting meat demand in emerging economies, including China.
  • The U.S. government is concerned that Chinese companies are selling Iran sensitive technology that may be used to develop a nuclear weapons capability, Robert Einhorn, the State Department's special adviser for nonproliferation and arms control, said today. Einhorn's comments are the latest reflection of unease among U.S. officials and proliferation experts that China remains a gap in enforcing United Nations sanctions on Iran, which China supported last year.
  • EU Stress Tests on Banks 'Urgent,' IMF Economist Blanchard Says: Tom Keene. Stress tests on European banks are “most definitely” needed, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist said. “We need to understand exactly the interaction between sovereign risks and financial risks,” Olivier Blanchard said in a Bloomberg Television interview on “Surveillance Midday” with Tom Keene today. “We need to understand the balance sheets of the banks,” he said, adding it was “very urgent." Asked about rising yields on Greek bonds and bills, Blanchard said ‘it’s very clear Greece has a long way to go.”“We know they cannot afford to pay 16 percent,” he said of the cost of Greece’s two-year debt. “That’s why we’re providing financing.” Asked about rising yields on Greek bonds and bills, Blanchard said ‘it’s very clear Greece has a long way to go.” Blanchard said that “in a number of countries,” especially in emerging markets, there are signs that inflation is picking up. “Once you’ve chosen an inflation target, it’s important for you in terms of credibility to actually try to achieve it,” Blanchard said when asked about central bankers’ recent concerns about inflation.
  • Japan GDP Shrank 1.3% Last Quarter, More Than Previous Estimate. Japan’s economy contracted more than the government initially estimated in the fourth quarter because of a downward revision to capital investment and consumer spending. Gross domestic product shrank at an annualized 1.3 percent rate in the three months ended Dec. 31, more than the 1.1 percent contraction reported last month, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo.
  • Bank of Korea Raises Rate to 3% as Inflation Exceeds Target. The Bank of Korea raised interest rates for the second time this year after inflation exceeded its targeted ceiling for two consecutive months. Governor Kim Choong Soo boosted the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate to 3 percent from 2.75 percent, the central bank said in a statement in Seoul today. Inflation has accelerated since rates were increased in January, with consumer prices reaching a two-year high and Finance Minister Yoon Jeung Hyun warning this week that the economy would be “seriously” affected by elevated price expectations. Consumer prices climbed 4.5 percent in February from a year earlier, breaching the central bank’s target of average inflation between 2 percent to 4 percent through 2012. Producer prices climbed 6.6 percent in February from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 27 months, the central bank said earlier today, fanned by oil prices approaching a peak set in 2008.
  • Copper Imports by China Slump to Two-Year Low on Ample Supplies, Prices. Copper imports by China, the largest consumer, tumbled 35 percent in February to the lowest in more than two years as ample domestic supplies weighed down prices, making shipments unprofitable. Arrivals of copper and products dropped to 235,469 metric tons from 364,240 tons in January, according to data on the General Administration of Customs website. That was the lowest level since January 2009, according to Bloomberg data.
  • Americans in Poll Show Scant Confidence as Plurality See Decline. Only 1 American in 7 has faith a lasting economic recovery has taken hold and a plurality say they are personally worse off than they were two years ago. Almost half of the respondents in a Bloomberg National Poll conducted March 4-7 believe the U.S. is in a “fragile” rebound and could fall back into recession. More than a third of the country believes the U.S. never emerged from recession. Sixty-three percent of Americans say the nation is on the wrong track, compared with 66 percent who said so in December, which was the lowest in the national mood in the one and a half years the Bloomberg poll has been conducted.
  • Valero Energy(VLO) is Said to Buy Chevron's U.K. Refinery for About $2 Billion.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Libya Regime Pushes Back. Forces loyal to Col. Moammar Gadhafi seized the central square of a rebel-held city west of the capital and stalled rebel forces in the east, as Libyan officials began a campaign to block international measures against the government. As the U.S., the European Union and other governments looked into options for intervention, including imposing a no-fly zone over Libya as well wider economic sanctions, a delegation of Col. Gadhafi's government headed to Europe carrying messages for North Atlantic Treaty Organization and EU ministers scheduled to hold meetings in Brussels on Thursday, European officials and diplomats said.
  • Clashes Kill 13 as Old Woes Beset New Egypt. Clashes between Coptic Christians and Muslims have killed more than a dozen people in recent days in Egypt, heightening a sense that the country's postrevolutionary euphoria is yielding to enduring problems including sectarian violence, poverty and misogyny. Coptic Christians angry at the burning of a church clashed late Tuesday with thousands of Muslims in a largely Coptic Christian neighborhood near Egypt's capital. At least 13 died and more than 100 wounded in a four-hour clash, said witnesses and the state news agency. The fighting between different religious groups came just hours after several hundred men roughed up female demonstrators who had gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square to mark International Women's Day and demand expanded rights and opportunities. In a separate tussle on Tahrir Square, the nerve center of Egypt's recent revolt, scores of Egyptian troops and men armed with sticks moved Wednesday night into the square and forced out several hundred protesters who had camped there for the past few days. Dozens of people were hurt, witnesses said.
  • GOP Ends Union Stalemate. Republican senators in Wisconsin Wednesday night maneuvered around Democrats to pass legislation stripping public employees' unions of collective-bargaining rights, setting the stage for other states to pursue similar steps in one of the broadest challenges to organized labor in decades. A vote on Republican Gov. Scott Walker's "budget-repair" bill had been stymied since Feb. 17 when 14 Democratic senators left the state, kicking off a rancorous, three-week political drama. Without the Democrats, the senate lacked a quorum to vote on certain fiscal items in the bill. On Wednesday night, Republican senators convened on short notice and removed appropriations items from the bill to allow a vote on the remaining issues—including curbs on the collective-bargaining rights of public-employee unions. The vote to pass the amended bill was 18-1, with no Democratic senators present.
  • Why I'm Fighting in Wisconsin by Governor Scott Walker.
  • House Panel Votes to End Obama Foreclosure Program. House Republicans moved Wednesday to end the Obama administration's main effort to assist troubled homeowners, with a key panel voting to terminate the program. The attempt to shut down the administration's flagship foreclosure-prevention effort, the Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, is likely to pass the Republican-led House in the coming weeks. The Democratic-controlled Senate, however, is unlikely to take up the bill. Republicans argue that the administration's housing programs are costly to taxpayers at a time when severe budgetary belt tightening is needed. They also note that the government has failed to prevent many foreclosures and has in some cases left homeowners worse off. "The government is offering false hope to hundreds of thousands of Americans," said Rep. Patrick McHenry (R., N.C.). "It's a fundamentally flawed program that was destined to fail from the beginning." When President Barack Obama launched the HAMP program two years ago, the administration said it would assist 3 million to 4 million troubled homeowners with reduced monthly mortgage payments. The program has fallen well short of that goal. About 1.5 million modifications have been started so far. But more than half of the homeowners have dropped out. Only about 540,000 were enrolled in permanent loan modifications and were making their payments on time at the end of January. Democrats concede that the program has been a disappointment, but say it should not be ended.
  • Wall Street Employment in January Rose 5.9% From Year Ago.
  • SEC Officials to Make Case for Increased Funding.
  • Proposed Bill Would Put Curbs on Data Gathering. Sens. John McCain and John Kerry are circulating proposed legislation to create an "online privacy bill of rights," according to people familiar with the situation, a sign of bipartisan support for efforts to curb the Internet-tracking industry.
  • Lawyers Make First Pitches to Jurors. Prosecutors Cite 'Greed and Corruption' in Rajaratnam Case; Defense Says Trading Data Were Legal.
Barron's:
  • Nicely Trimmed. Smaller, stronger hedge-fund industry emerged from financial crisis. For more Penta features.Video: Barron's 100 Top Hedge Funds. WHY INVEST IN A HEDGE FUND? To beat the market, obviously. On that score, the winners of our annual Top 100 Hedge Fund ranking came through with flying colors, posting an average annual return of 20.83% over the past three years, compared to a 2.24% return for all hedge funds and a 15.94% loss for the stock market overall. Because many of our Top 100 invest in bonds and engage in short-selling stocks, they don't always benefit as much in an up market. Last year the average fund on our list was up 25.14%, a tad less than the 26.5% gain for the Standard and Poor's 500 Index. But a lot of hedge funds suffered a far worse fate. Since the financial crisis erupted in late 2008, an estimated 2,000 of them have gone out of business, taking their number down to about 9,000.
Bloomberg Businessweek:
  • HCA Holdings(HCA) Raises $3.79 Billion in IPO. HCA Holdings Inc., the hospital chain that went private in 2006, raised $3.79 billion in its initial public offering. HCA, based in Nashville, Tennessee, sold 126.2 million shares at $30 each, the top of the proposed range, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The underwriters may exercise an overallotment option to buy as many as 18.9 million additional shares within 30 days of the offering, the data show. HCA sold 87.7 million shares, while existing investors sold 38.5 million.
  • El Baradei Says He Intends to Run in Egypt Presidential Election. Egyptian opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei said he plans to contest the first presidential elections to be held after mass demonstrations ended former President Hosni Mubarak’s three-decade rule. ElBaradei, 68, emerged as the surprise face of an Egyptian opposition that forced Mubarak from office last month after 18 days of mass demonstrations, ending three decades of rule. The protests were inspired by a mass uprising in Tunisia that led to the ouster of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. In the early part of the interview with Egypt’s ONTV, the Nobel Prize winner said he wanted to run in the next election, though he refused to repeat the statement and then said he would only do so if the system was fair. As the show came to an end and after being pressed by the interviewer, he said: “I, Mohamed ElBaradei, intend to officially declare my candidacy for presidency through ONTV.”
  • Fed Gives Markets Clues on Exit Path From Unprecedented Easing. The Federal Reserve is trying to let investors know that, even as it pursues an unprecedented expansion of monetary stimulus, it hasn’t forgotten about exiting.
CNBC:
MarketWatch:
  • CCB Chairman: China Has Room to Hike Banks' RRR. China Construction Bank Corp. (0939.HK) Chairman Guo Shuqing said Thursday there is room to raise banks' reserve requirement ratio as long as liquidity remains flush. Guo also said China Construction Bank will definitely issue fewer new loans this year than last year.
Business Insider:
  • The 14 Biggest Billionaire Losers of the Year.
  • The CIA Pension Fund is Going Broke. According to Pensions and Investments magazine, the CIA's pension plan is going bust. Here's the story:
  • Bill Gross: Tax the Wealthy and Corporations a Lot More. "Of course we should" pay higher taxes, Gross says. "Higher income groups have enjoyed an enormous privilege ever since the Reagan tax cuts...and actually ever since Kennedy began the process back in the ‘60s." Gross admits it's difficult to know what constitutes "wealthy" in America or what federal income tax rate serves as a disincentive to those at the top of the food chain. "But I don't think it's 36%," he says. "I think high-income earners would work well into the 50% tax rate. In addition to tax hikes on the wealthy, "let's raise corporate taxes too," the famed bond fund manager says, a view that runs in direct opposition to the current discussions in Washington. Gross goes on to accuse corporations of "holding governments basically hostage" by threatening to move to another state, or country, if taxes go up. "That's faulty logic and should be tested by politicians going forward. "
Zero Hedge:
Forbes:
CNN Money:
  • Senate Panel to Probe Counterfeit Military Parts Problem. The risk of counterfeit electronics being used in military equipment has prompted a congressional investigation, the top senators on the Senate Armed Services Committee announced Wednesday. "The presence of counterfeit electronic parts in the Defense Department's supply chain is a growing problem that government and industry share a common interest in solving," committee Chairman Carl Levin, D-Michigan, and Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, the ranking member, said in a statement.
  • Is China's Economy Slowing Too Fast? It's starting to look as if everybody's worst fears about China's economy may finally be coming true. China is slowing down. China reported sluggish auto sales figures for February on Wednesday morning. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sales of passenger vehicles were up less than 3% from a year ago. One reason for the slowdown is that tax breaks for small cars expired at the end of last year. But the anemic pace of growth may continue. Economists from Barclays Capital noted in a report Wednesday that "with borrowing costs rising and credit availability falling, the fuel for rising automobile demand is running low" throughout Asia. The economists added that weakness could be most pronounced in China and India since their central banks are raising rates to combat inflation. If oil prices remain above $100 a barrel for an extended stretch, that could only make matters worse. There is reason to be worried that China's economy may be cooling even more quickly than people expected. Optical networking equipment maker Finisar (FNSR), which had been one of the hottest stocks this year due in part to hopes for strong growth in China, stunned investors Tuesday evening with a weak outlook for the current quarter. Finisar said in its earnings report that "a slowdown in business in China overall" was a key reason for its tepid forecast. Shares of Finisar plunged nearly 40% Wednesday on the news, dragging down other networking equipment companies with a big presence in China, like JDS Uniphase (JDSU) and Ciena (CIEN). If more Chinese telecoms and tech firms start to rein in spending, that's not good news. And the biggest problem right now is that China can't afford to be lax about inflation risks. That likely will mean more monetary tightening to slow growth further -- even as the Federal Reserve seems intent on keeping rates near zero for the foreseeable future. "Excess liquidity is already feeding property bubbles, commercial and residential, in certain cities," wrote Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, Scotland in a report this week. He noted that China is acting aggressively. There have been eight increases to bank reserve ratio requirements and three interest rate hikes in the past few months. But China probably has only just begun to tighten. "The latest data still suggest that the authorities are behind the curve, and have more to do," Milligan wrote. Even if China's growth slows, the bigger concern would be what might happen if China doesn't go far enough to keep pricing pressures in check. The consequences of China losing the battle with inflation would be far worse than annual growth slowing from 10% to 7%.
Real Clear Politics:
  • Fantasies From Obama & the Environmental Lobby by John Stossel. Anyone who understands basic economics already knows that President Obama's $2.3 billion green-jobs initiative was snake oil. Now, thanks to Kenneth P. Green, we have statistics as well as theory to prove it. In a new article, "The Myth of Green Energy Jobs: The European Experience," the environmental scientist and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute writes, "Green programs in Spain destroyed 2.2 jobs for every green job created, while the capital needed for one green job in Italy could create almost five jobs in the general economy." Ironically, Obama boasts his initiative "will help close the clean-energy gap between America and other nations." But Green says, "(C)ountries are cutting these programs because they realize they aren't sustainable and they are obscenely expensive."
Politico:
  • Issa: Obama Pay Freeze a Farce. Rep. Darrell Issa called President Barack Obama’s pay freeze on the federal workforce a farce, since it doesn’t bar raises for workers who are promoted.
  • 27% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters now say the country is heading down the wrong track, up two points from last week. Only 45% of Democrats feel this way, however, compared to 87% of Republicans and 72% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.
Reuters:
  • FOREX - Euro Drifts Lower as Sovereign Woes Persist.
  • Goldman Sachs'(GS) Sutherland Calls for Ireland Deal Rethink. The chairman of Goldman Sachs' overseas arm called on the European Union on Thursday to review the terms of Ireland's bailout package because they could exacerbate the country's economic troubles.
  • St Gobain Says Closes Retail Business in Shanghai. Saint-Gobain, the world's largest building materials company, said it has closed one of its retail operations in Shanghai. The move comes after U.S. consumer electronics retailer Best Buy Co Inc (BBY) last month shut down its self-branded stores in China and toymaker Mattel Inc's (MAT) closure of its flagship Barbie store in Shanghai. Saint-Gobain will close all seven "La Maison" outlets in Shanghai given dwindling demand for interior settings from individuals, Nicolas Nie, external affairs director at Saint-Gobain China, said. The group, which competes with Owens Illinois (OI) and CRH, manufactures and distributes construction products such as pipes, ceramics and flat glass. Its materials were used to build the Louvre Pyramid in Paris and London's Gherkin tower. Global retailers are eager to tap China's massive consumer market, but getting people in the world's most populous nation to open their wallets is not as easy as it seems.
  • Inflows into US Mutual Funds Halve in Latest Week - ICI.
  • U.S. Clears New Lupus Drug, Blockbuster Sales Seen. The first new treatment for lupus in a half-century won U.S. approval on Wednesday, a milestone for patients with the disabling disease and a potential blockbuster for its tiny biotech maker. Shares of Human Genome(HGSI), a money-losing company founded in 1992 to develop drugs with data from the human genetic map, were halted. The company will split profits with British drug giant GlaxoSmithKline Plc(GSK).
Financial Times:
  • JPMorgan(JPM) Highlights Leverage Anomaly. US bank use of debt to juice up returns in their trading books is almost twice that of the average hedge fund, a report from JPMorgan has estimated. Hedge funds have been steadily reducing their leverage – the amount of borrowed money deployed to boost returns – since 2008, the report found. In contrast, bank leverage has remained sharply elevated.
Telegraph:
  • EU Paralysis Drives Fresh Bond Rout. Political paralysis in Brussels and monetary tightening by the European Central Bank has set off a fresh spasm of the eurozone bond crisis, pushing spreads on Portuguese, Irish and Greek bonds to post-EMU records. Portugal edged closer to the brink yesterday, having to pay almost 6pc to raise two-year debt. The yield on 10-year bonds briefly surged to 7.8pc after the Chinese rating agency Dagong downgraded the country's debt to BBB+. "These levels of interest rates are not sustainable over time," said Carlos Costa Pina, secretary of the Portuguese Treasury, blaming the latest upset on the lack of a coherent EU debt strategy rather any failing by Portugal to deliver on austerity. Mr Costa Pina rebuffed calls by leading economists in Portugal for an EU-IMF bail-out rather than drawing out the agony.
Sky News:
  • Prudential Plc CEO Tidjane Thiam told Sky in an interview that UK taxation is "too high," saying "lower taxation drives growth, drives employment and leads to higher revenues for the government." Thiam said the UK has a "number of strengths" including its geographic location and labor market, and London is the "right location" for the company. "But as these various elements move," Thiam said, "that conclusion may change."
Herald Sun:
  • Soaring Australian House Prices May Spark Mortgage Crisis - Economist Brian Haratsis. The nation could face a sub-prime crisis like the one in the US that sparked the global financial crisis, said Brian Haratsis, chief economist at Macro Plan Australia. He warned that without government intervention on house prices battlers at the bottom end of the market would be worst affected. He is also predicting at least two rate rises this year, pushing home loan interest rates as high as eight per cent for some punters and freezing the market. "Australia is going to be extremely exposed between 2012-15 because people won't be able to afford to buy a house," he said. "A lot of people could wind up with negative equity and we could have a sub-prime issue on our hands." He warns that all parts of the property market could feel the effects if another "Black Swan Event" like a market crash in China occurs. Mr Haratsis has been monitoring the industry for 30 years and believes house prices are inflated by about 20 per cent at the moment.
South China Morning Post:
China Daily:
  • Chinese central bank adviser Li Daokui expects inflation this year to average 5% for the Asian nation, citing an interview.
China Forex:
  • China may face "relatively large" potential risks from mass cross-border capital flows led by the uncertain U.S. economy, Deng Xianhong, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, wrote in a commentary. China should crack down on "hot money" inflows that may impact economic and financial systems, Deng wrote.
Evening Recommendations
Collins Stewart:
  • Rated (ISRG) Buy, target $400.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.50% to -.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.50 +2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 115.50 -1.25 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures -.59%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.61%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (JW/A)/.71
  • (BKE)/1.00
  • (JTX)/.31
  • (SFD)/.69
  • (ZQK)/-.05
  • (ZUMZ)/.48
  • (NSM)/.24
  • (PLL)/.57
  • (ARO)/.97
  • (ULTA)/.44
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 376K versus 368K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3750K versus 3774K prior.
  • The Trade Deficit for January is estimated to widen to -$41.5B versus -$40.6B in December.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Deficit for February is estimated to widen to -225.2B versus -220.9B in January..
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Consumer Advisory Council meeting, $13 Billion 30-Year Treasury Bonds Auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Morgan Stanley Utilities Conference, Oppenheimer Internet Infrastructure Conference, RBC Capital Tech/Communications Conference, BofA Merrill Refining Conference, (CEDC) Investor Day, (CYMI) analyst meeting and the (UTX) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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