North American Investment Grade CDS Index 96.14 +1.46%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.83 -2.75%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 167.75 bps -.49%
Emerging Market CDS Index 208.32 -.43%
2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 -3 bps
TED Spread 22.0 -1 bp
Economic Gauges:
3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% +1 bp
Yield Curve 266.0 -2 bps
China Import Iron Ore Spot $168.50/Metric Tonne +.66%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +46.10 -4.2 points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46% unch.
Overseas Futures:
Nikkei Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany
Portfolio:
Higher: On gains in my Tech, Retail, Biotech and Medical longs
Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, covered some of my (EEM) short
Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish as the S&P 500 bounced sharply off its 50-day moving average this morning, despite rising Mideast unrest, higher energy prices, US housing worries, emerging market inflation fears, more hawkish Fed commentary, eurozone debt angst and Japan concerns. On the positive side, Gaming, Biotech, Wireless, Telecom, Steel, Oil Service and Alt Energy shares are especially strong, rising 1.5%+. Small-caps and cyclicals are outperforming. Gold is down -.2%. The Italy sovereign cds is falling -3.0%, the Belgium sovereign cds is declining -3.47% to 138.13 bps and the UK sovereign cds is falling -3.47% to 55.27 bps. On the negative side, Education, Homebuilding, Airline, I-Banking and Computer Hardware shares are lower on the day. (XLF)/(IYR) have lagged badly throughout the day. Oil is rising +1.01% and Lumber is falling -2.63%. The US price for a gallon of gas is +.01/gallon today to $3.59/gallon. It is up .47/gallon in 42 days. Weekly retail sales rose +2.3% this week versus a +2.2% gain the prior week. This is down from a +3.6% gain the week of 1/4 and below the long-term average of a +2.7% gain. The Spain sovereign cds is climbing +2.73% to 218.48 bps, the Greece sovereign cds is rising +2.38% to 999.94 bps and the Russia sovereign cds is rising +3.23% to 131.96 bps. Some market leading stocks aren't participating today, which is always a concern. As well, overseas markets finished mostly weaker overnight. However, the bears were unable to gain any traction again this morning despite a number of potential catalysts. Quarter-end window dressing and expectations for a strong jobs report on Friday are likely aiding the bulls today. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, more economic optimism, window-dressing, technical buying and buyout speculation.
No comments:
Post a Comment