Monday, April 04, 2011

Tuesday Watch


Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Bernanke Says Fed Will Act If Inflation More Than 'Transitory'. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he expects an increase in commodity prices to create a “transitory” boost in U.S. inflation and that the central bank would act if he’s proven incorrect. “We have to monitor inflation and inflation expectations extremely closely because if my assumptions prove not to be correct, then we would certainly have to respond to that and ensure that we maintain price stability,” he said. “So long as inflation expectations remain stable and well anchored” and commodity-price increases slow, as he’s forecasting, then “the increase in inflation will be transitory,” Bernanke said today in response to audience questions after a speech in Stone Mountain, Georgia.
  • Qaddafi Diplomacy Rebuffed as Europeans Back Rebel Demands. Muammar Qaddafi’s diplomatic outreach failed to entice European leaders, as Italy rejected a reported cease-fire proposal and recognized the rebels’ interim council as the nation’s only legitimate government. In Libya, rebels pushed back regime loyalists to gain control of most of the oil port at Brega, according to al- Jazeera television. U.S. and NATO warplanes continued to destroy regime targets, such as military vehicles near Brega hit by a U.S. A-10 Thunderbolt II ground-attack jet, according to a statement from the Pentagon.
  • Geithner Says U.S. to Reach Debt Limit No Later Than May 16. The U.S. will reach its $14.29 trillion legal debt limit no later than May 16 unless Congress acts before then, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said today. If the limit hasn’t been raised by May 16, the Treasury Department will turn to a toolkit of emergency measures that can provide up to eight weeks of additional borrowing room, Geithner said. That extra time would end about July 8, the Treasury chief said.
  • NYSE(NYX) Shareholders Anticipate Counterbid From Deutsche Boerse After Nasdaq(NDAQ). Deutsche Boerse AG will probably raise its offer for NYSE Euronext to fend off Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NDAQ)’s unsolicited bid, according to three shareholders of the biggest U.S. stock exchange operator.
  • BofA(BAC) Was Pressed by SEC on Reserves for Mortgage Repurchases. Bank of America Corp. (BAC), in an exchange of letters with U.S. regulators that lasted over a year, was pressed for information about its reserves to cover the cost of buying back faulty home loans. “Discuss the level and type of repurchase requests you are receiving, and any trends that have been identified, including your success rates in avoiding settling the claim,” the Securities and Exchange Commission said in a Jan. 29, 2010, letter to the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank that was released today. “Tell us and disclose in future filings how you establish repurchase reserves for various representations and warranties that you have made.”
  • Google(GOOG) Said to Be Possible Target of U.S. FTC Antitrust Probe. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is considering a broad antitrust investigation of Google Inc. (GOOG)’s dominance of the Internet-search industry, two people familiar with the matter said. Before proceeding with any probe, the FTC is awaiting a decision on whether the Justice Department will challenge Google’s planned acquisition of ITA Software Inc. as a threat to competition in the travel-information search business, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the matter is still confidential. The FTC and Justice Department share responsibility for oversight of antitrust enforcement, and the outcome of the ITA matter may determine whether the two agencies will vie for control of a broader probe of Google, the people said. The two agencies sometimes negotiate which one will handle major antitrust investigations, with the decision turning on their respective expertise. The Justice Department may soon announce its decision on Google’s purchase of ITA, said the people familiar with the matter.
  • Options, Volume Surge on Barclays' Long-Term Treasury ETF(TLT). Trading of bullish options on an exchange-traded fund tracking long-term Treasuries jumped to the highest level since September after a single block trade that profits if bond prices increase, driving yields lower. The block of 45,000 June $101 calls to buy the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund traded at the ask price and exceeded the prior open interest of 764 contracts, indicating a buyer who expects the ETF to rally initiated the transaction. Total call trading volume for the fund, which rose 0.1 percent to $92.29 at 4 p.m. New York time, was 65,687 contracts, or quadruple the four-week average.
  • TI(TXN) to Buy National Semi(NSM) for $6.5 Billion, Expanding Analog Chip Leadership. Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), the second- largest U.S. chipmaker, agreed to buy National Semiconductor Corp. (NSM) for about $6.5 billion, its biggest acquisition, to add higher margin analog semiconductors. National Semiconductor shareholders will get $25 a share in the all-cash transaction, the Dallas-based company said today in a statement. That’s a 78 percent premium to National Semiconductor’s closing price today of $14.07.
  • EU Regulator Starts Probe Into High Speed Trading. The European Securities and Markets Authority has begun an investigation into automated trading firms, asking for details on trading strategies and the computer algorithms that drive their trading deals, the Financial Times reported, citing a questionnaire sent to companies across Europe. The probe is part of a fact-finding project to enable ESMA to “better understand high frequency trading strategies and the impact of these strategies on the functioning of the markets as a whole, including the risks associated with HFT,” the questionnaire said, according to the FT.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Rebel Chief Asks for Timely Strikes, Helicopters. The top military commander of Libya's rebels said opposition fighters are unlikely to make significant gains against Col. Moammar Gadhafi's forces unless the North Atlantic Treaty Organization responds more quickly to requests for airstrikes, and gives the rebels advanced weapons, including helicopters. "If NATO listens to us and takes our requests seriously, this war won't last long," said rebel Chief-of-Staff Gen. Abdel Fattah Younis, in an interview at a safe house in a rural suburb of Benghazi. "If they don't give us what we are asking for, I don't know how long it will last."
  • U.S. Lenders Near Pacts in Foreclosure Probe. Fourteen U.S. lenders are on the verge of agreements with federal bank regulators to overhaul their handling of foreclosures and treatment of delinquent borrowers in response to allegations of abuses that emerged last fall. Regulators including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Reserve and Office of Thrift Supervision could announce the agreements with the banks and thrifts as early as next week, though a date wasn't final, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Hedge Funds Had 'Challenging' March. Hedge funds struggled to avoid losses in March as the $2 trillion industry was hit by the mid-month market slump triggered by Japan's massive earthquake and tsunami. "Hedge funds had a challenging March," Mary Ann Bartels, who tracks industry activity at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote in a note to investors Monday. Investable hedge-fund indexes tracked by Bartels lost 0.91% last month, through March 30, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 0.08% in the same period.
  • Siemens' Business Surges in Iran.
Business Insider:
Commercial Times:
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and United Microelectronics Corp. have received increased orders after the earthquake in Japan disrupted production in the nation.
People's Daily:
  • Conditions supporting China's high growth may gradually weaken, citing Ma Jiantang, head of the country's National Bureau of Statistics. The country is facing a difficult task to meet domestic grain demand which may continue to increase.
China National Radio:
  • The likelihood of an interest rate increase in China is getting larger, citing Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at the State Inflation Center. The country's consumer prices may gain as much as 5% this year, citing Zhu.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.0 -.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 110.0 -1.0 basis point0.
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (KBH)-.30
  • (VRNT)/.51
  • (ISCA)/.47
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for March is estimated at 59.5 versus 59.7 in February.
2:00 pm EST
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Treasury's Geithner speaking, $24 Billion 1-Year Treasury Bills Auction, weekly retail sales reports, Needham Healthcare Conference, (TECD) investor day, (EM) investor summit and the (AYR) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by automaker and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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