Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Vacant Japan Homes Show Holes in Abe’s Push for Housing Growth. More than 50 houses and apartments, almost 20 percent of the quaint residential neighborhood of narrow streets and stairway paths leading into green hills, are empty here, an hour’s train ride south of Tokyo and 1,000 yards (900 meters) from the Yokosuka naval base, home of the U.S. Seventh Fleet. That hasn’t stopped developers from building at least eight new apartment blocks in the same city in the past two years. 
  • China’s Choking Cities Means Job Cuts at Steel Town: Commodities. After a decade of failed efforts to cut outdated commodity capacity in China, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says Li is getting serious, driven by the need to reduce severe pollution. Zhang and thousands like him on Galaxy Street live off servicing mills in Tangshan, the largest steel city in China that alone has almost five times as many blast furnaces as North America. “If you shut these plants, we’ll all lose our jobs,” said Zhang. “If there’s no steel industry, we would have a hard time finding other work.” 
  • China August Home Prices Rise as Major Cities Post Record Gains. New home prices in China’s four major cities rose the most in August since January 2011, led by Guangzhou, on expectations that the government won’t implement new nationwide property curbs any time soon. Prices climbed in 69 of the 70 cities the government tracked last month from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today. The number of cities that posted increases last month matched that of in July, June and May, which was the most since August 2011. Prices jumped 19 percent in Guangzhou, while the capital city of Beijing and financial center of Shanghai both rose 15 percent from a year earlier. In Shenzhen, prices rose 18 percent from a year ago
  • Shanghai in Name Adds $45 Billion of Value Amid Bubble Risk. Zhang Guangdi has watched the market value of his Shanghai International Port Group Co. (600018) shares jump 130 percent since Aug. 22, when China’s commerce ministry said the government approved a free-trade zone in Shanghai. The 67-year-old retiree says he’ll probably sell the 2,935 yuan ($480) stake when the zone, part of Premier Li Keqiang’s plan to liberalize yuan trading and relax government regulation, opens at the end of this month. The port operator is valued at 25 times profit, a 121 percent premium versus the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 
  • Asian Stocks Rise to Near Four-Month High Ahead of Fed. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index trading near a four-month high, before the Federal Reserve decides later today whether to slow its $85 billion of monthly asset purchases. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. and Fanuc Corp. rose at least 3.3 percent in Tokyo as industrial companies led gains on the Asia-Pacific benchmark index. Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. (7012) surged 4.4 percent to a six-year high amid unconfirmed reports the Japanese manufacturer secured a 180 billion yen ($1.8 billion) rail-car order. Kansai Electric Power Co. sank 1.4 percent in Tokyo after the utility halted units at two power plants. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4 percent to 138.69 as of 11:20 a.m. in Hong Kong as seven of the 10 industry groups on the gauge advanced
  • Rebar Falls to Seven-Week Low as Purchases Slow, Iron Ore Drops. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai fell to the lowest level in seven weeks as purchases of the building material slowed before a national holiday and as iron ore prices declined. Rebar for delivery in January on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 0.6 percent to 3,626 yuan ($592) a metric ton, the lowest since July 31, before trading at 3,631 yuan at 10:18 a.m. The market will be closed in China for a Mid-Autumn Festival tomorrow and Sept. 20
  • Gold Tumbles Below $1,300 to Six-Week Low Before Fed Statement. Gold for immediate delivery lost as much as 1.4 percent to $1,292.95 an ounce, the lowest level since Aug. 8, and traded at $1,294.79 at 9:26 a.m. in Singapore, sliding for a third day. Bullion for December delivery slid as much as 1.3 percent to $1,293 on the Comex in New York, the lowest since Aug. 8.
  • Dimon Tells JPMorgan Staff to Brace for More Regulatory Woes. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon told employees to prepare for more legal woes while the bank undertakes an “unprecedented effort” to comply with regulations. “We are all well aware of the news around the legal and regulatory issues facing our company, and in the coming weeks and months we need to be braced for more to come,” Dimon said today in an e-mail to JPMorgan’s more than 250,000 employees (JPM:US).
  • Adobe’s(ADBE) Shift to Subscriptions Puts Brakes on Profit, Sales. Adobe Systems Inc.shares rose after the largest maker of graphic-design tools said it amassed more than 1 million customers for its online services amid a shift away from software installed on personal computers. A 47 percent jump in the number of Web subscribers, which exceeded some analysts’ estimates, coincided with a drop in sales and profit. Revenue for the period through August declined 7.9 percent to $995.1 million, the company said in a statement today, missing the $1.01 billion average of analysts’ projections compiled by Bloomberg.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Obama Goes to War. The President finds an enemy he's willing to bomb—Republicans.
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
New York Times:
Reuters:
  • U.S. internet sales tax bill to follow seven principles. Legislation that the U.S. House of Representatives will soon take up on allowing states to tax online purchases will follow seven major principles, including keeping the system simple for small businesses and ensuring it will not lead to new taxes, sources present at talks on the matter said on Tuesday.
  • U.S. must cut $2 trillion over 10 yrs to stabilize debt-CBO. U.S. lawmakers are far from finished with the job of deficit-cutting, the Congressional Budget Office warned on Tuesday, saying that $2 trillion in additional savings is needed over the next 10 years just to stabilize long-term U.S. debt. 
  • Apple(AAPL) iPhone 5C orders 'not overwhelming': carrier source. Pre-orders for Apple Inc's new plastic-backed, brightly colored iPhone 5C have not been "overwhelming," and supply of both that model as well as a more expensive phone has been disappointing, a source at a U.S. wireless carrier told Reuters on Tuesday.
Financial Times:
  • Housing price surge begs question of China’s leaders. Residential prices soared in China’s biggest cities in August, raising the possibility that the government will take fresh measures to cool the red-hot market. Some investors and analysts have started to express concern about whether China’s property market is veering into dangerous bubble territory, but the government has so far taken a much more dovish line.
China Daily:
  • China Demand for Crab Falls on Anti-Luxury Campaign. Demand for hairy crabs from Yangcheng Lake near Shanghai have "dropped significantly" from previous years mainly because of a government ban on extravagant spending, citing Yang Weilong, chairman of the lake's crab industry group.
China Securities Journal:
  • China Faces Risk in Holding U.S. Treasuries. China faces rising risks in holding U.S. Treasuries, Zhang Monan, a researcher with the State Information Center under the National Development and Reform Commission, wrote. China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries aren't safe, Zhang wrote. China "must" change the situation of holding "too much" U.S. Treasuries, Zhang said.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 110.25 +1.5 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.14%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (FDX)/1.50
  • (SCS)/.25
  • (ORCL)/.56
  • (MLHR)/.38
  • (CBRL)/1.34
  • (GIS)/.70
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST  
  • Housing Starts for August are estimated to rise to 917K versus 896K in July.
  • Building Permits for August are estimated to rise to 950K versus 943K in July.
2:00 pm EST 
  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark fed funds rate at .25%. 
  • Fed pace of MBS purchases estimated at $40B versus $40B prior.
  • Fed pace of Treasury purchases estimated at $40B versus $45B prior.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,200,000 barrels versus a -219,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +500,000 barrels versus a +1,658,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +500,000 barrels versus a +2,586,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.5% versus a +.8% gain the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bernanke speaking, Italian Senate vote on Berlusconi, Japan Trade Balance, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, CSFB Steel/Mining Conference and the (DKS) Analyst Day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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