Monday, September 30, 2013

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on US Debt Ceiling/Govt Shutdown Worries, Rising European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Energy/REIT Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.59 +7.31%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.50 -.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.10 +.10%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.0 +5.46%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 63.0 -18.18%
  • Total Put/Call 1.09 +15.96%
  • NYSE Arms 1.39 +10.78% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.98 +1.11%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 147.59 +1.62%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 87.93 +3.56%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 292.98 -.33%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.0 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% -1 basis point
  • Yield Curve 230.0 +1 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $131.40/Metric Tonne -.38%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.5 +4.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.20 +2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 +1 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +125 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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