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Thursday, January 01, 2015

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:14 PM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Ukrainian Army and Rebels Trade Blame Amid Warning of Hard 2015. Separatist rebels fired on Ukrainian forces 23 times on New Year’s eve, wounding three soldiers, the country’s military spokesman said. Nobody was killed during the incidents in Ukraine’s eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the past 24 hours, Andriy Lysenko, the spokesman, told reporters in Kiev today. Five “enemy” drones were also spotted in the conflict-affected areas overnight, he said, while a soldier who had been “abducted by bandits” was freed by Ukrainian special forces. Militants made “numerous attempts to provoke Ukrainian servicemen” in order to blame the military for violations of a cease-fire, Lysenko said. Rebels continue to receive supplies of weapons from across the Russian border, he said.
  • China Developer Kaisa’s Bonds Plunge After Loan Default. Bonds of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. plunged to record lows after the Chinese developer defaulted on a loan following the resignation of its chairman. The developer’s $800 million of 8.875 percent notes due 2018 and sold to investors at par in March 2013 tumbled to 43.087 cents on the dollar as of 10:11 a.m. in Hong Kong, from 66.263 cents on the dollar on Dec. 31, sending yields to 43.285 percent. Its $500 million of 10.25 percent debentures due 2020 slid to 38.683 cents on the dollar to yield 38.984 percent. The securities were sold to investors at 100 cents on the dollar in January 2013.
  • Singapore GDP Rose Less Than Estimated as Manufacturing Shrank. Singapore’s economy expanded less than economists estimated last quarter after its manufacturing industry weakened with slowing growth in China and an uneven global recovery. Gross domestic product rose an annualized 1.6 percent in the three months to Dec. 31 from the previous quarter, when it expanded 3.1 percent, the trade ministry said in a statement today. The median of five estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 3 percent expansion.
  • Singapore Home Prices Post Longest Losing Streak in Decade. Singapore’s home prices dropped for a fifth consecutive quarter, the longest losing streak in more than a decade, as tighter mortgage curbs cooled demand in Asia’s second-most expensive housing market. An index tracking private residential prices fell 1 percent to 205.8 points in the three months ended Dec. 31, the longest stretch of declines since March 2004 and bringing the slide to 4.9 percent from the record high set in September 2013, according to preliminary data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority today.
  • New Year's Stampede Kills 36 in Shanghai as Massive Holiday Approaches. China demanded a review of crowd-safety procedures as dozens of people remain in Shanghai’s hospitals after a deadly stampede on New Year’s Eve killed 36 and caused the cancellation of celebrations across the city. At least 47 people were injured, including 40 still serious enough to required hospitalization, the Shanghai government said on its website. The stampede -- the city’s deadliest disaster since 2010 -- started about 11:35 p.m. on New Year’s Eve as tens of thousands of people crowded into the historic Bund riverside district for a light show.
  • Hyundai and Kia Forecast Slowest Sales Growth in Nine Years. Hyundai Motor Co. (005380) and Kia Motors Corp. (000270), South Korea’s largest automakers, forecast their weakest sales growth in nine years as they run out of capacity to increase output and competition intensifies in major markets. The companies’ combined deliveries will rise 2.5 percent to 8.2 million vehicles in 2015, Chung Mong Koo, chairman of both automakers, said during a New Year address to employees in Seoul today. That would be the slowest growth since 2006. The forecast was in line with analysts’ estimate of 8.2 million units this year, based on the median of five estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. 
  • Dollar Rises to Five-Year High as U.S. Index Futures, Oil Climb. The dollar rose to its highest level in more than five years and U.S. stock-index futures advanced before the release of American factory data. Oil gained with silver, while tin dropped. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index strengthened 0.3 percent at 10:41 a.m. in Hong Kong. The yen retreated 0.5 percent and the euro headed for its lowest level since June 2010.
  • Commoditie Cap Record Losing Run on Crude Oil to Dollar. Commodities capped the biggest annual loss since the global financial crisis in 2008, retreating for a record fourth year,as a global glut spurred a rout in oil prices and a stronger dollar cut the allure of raw materials. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), which tracks 22 products from crude to copper, ended 1.7 percent lower at 104.3285 points yesterday, after dropping as much as 1.8 percent to the lowest since March 2009 earlier. It lost 17 percent last year, with crude, gasoline and heating oil the biggest decliners. The fourth year of losses was the longest run since at least 1991.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Overseas Headwinds Test U.S. Economy. Nation’s Biggest Challenge Is Doldrums Abroad.  
  • Housing Market Enters 2015 Facing Affordability Pressures. Few Signs of Breakout or Sharp Slowdown for Sector.
Fox News:
  • First AirAsia victim's body identified as search hampered by bad weather.
MarketWatch.com:
  • 10 ‘gray swans’ that could upend the market in 2015. 
Zero Hedge:
  • Congressman Confirms Foreign Central Banks Buying US Stock Futures Is Good For Liquidity.
  • S&P 500 Closes 2014 Weak, Up 6th Year In A Row; Treasuries Triple Dow's Gains.
  • As Greek Default Risk Soars To 66%, Morgan Stanley Warns ECB May Be Unable To Launch QE.
  • UK Literally Runs Out Of Bricks In Scramble To Build Unprecedented Housing Bubble. (graph)
  • Forget Toasters & Spiderman Towels, Chinese Banks Lure New Deposits With iPhones & Mercedes.
  • Occam's Oil. (graph)
  • Weaponized Ebola? ISIS Militants Said To Contract Deadly Virus.
  • The Best And Worst Hedge Funds Of 2014, And Everyone Inbetween. (table)
  • "Audit The Fed" Bill Gains Momentum, Yellen Starts Damage Control.
  • The Japanese Stock-Buying Greatest Fool Uncovered: France. (graph)
Business Insider:
  • The Most Hilarious Chart Of 2014. (graph)
  • Here's How Every Major Asset Class On The Planet Did In 2014.
  • 2015 Will Be The Year Of Dollar Danger For The World.
  • Poroshenko To Ukraine: This Year Will Not Be Easy.
  • Report: Syria's War Killed More Than 33,000 Civilians In 2014.
  • China Is Sputtering.
  • The Euro Is Starting The Year At New Lows.
Reuters:
  • Brazil's Rousseff vows budget cuts, anti-corruption push in 2nd term. Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff began her second term Thursday vowing to rein in government spending to curb inflation and pull Latin America's largest economy out of a four-year slump.
Telegraph:
  • Greek expulsion from the euro would demolish EMU’s contagion firewall. Should EMU leaders choose to cut off liquidity support for the Greek banking system they might find that their contagion defences are a fiction.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.0 +3.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 67.25 +.25 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures +.46%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.46%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • None of note
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
  • Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI for December is estimated to rise to 54.0 versus a prior estimate of 53.7.
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending for November is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.1% gain in October.
  • ISM Manufacturing for December is estimated to fall to 57.5 versus 58.7 in November.
  • ISM Prices Paid for December is estimated to fall to 44.0 versus 44.5 in November. 
Upcoming Splits
  • (GNTX) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Mester speaking, Eurzone PMI report, China Services PMI report and the (RAD) sales update could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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