Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,043.94 -1.0%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Global Growth Fears, Yen Strength, Technical Selling, Tech/Drug Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.88 +3.41%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.58 -.81%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.38 -.61%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.34 +.66%

• ISE Sentiment Index 58.0 -22.67%

• Total Put/Call 1.06 +7.07%

• NYSE Arms .98 -65.83% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.39 +.14%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,703.0 +.62%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.90 -.11%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 16.28 -3.84%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 73.61 +2.97%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 358.95 +.68%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.77 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +2.0 basis points

• TED Spread 46.50 +6.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.21 +.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .16% +3.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 122.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $43.57/Metric Tonne +.35%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.8 -4.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.4 +.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.90 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.58% +2.0 basis points
• 50.8% chance of next Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 56.3% chance at April 27 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -188 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -222 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer: 

• Small-Cap Growth -.7%

Sector Underperformers: 

• 1) Alt Energy -1.0% 2) Airlines -1.0% 3) Drugs -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• FLML, SODA, FXCM, CPK, IEP, BNFT, INCR, ARMH, NHTC, EQGP, LDL, CWCO, CRMT, AMOT, HELE, HQY, SCHN, ES, AXON, NVCR, IDT, HRTX, DY, BOKF and DTEA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 

• 1) XLK 2) CTSH 3) HFC 4) XLF 5) APA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 

• 1) AMZN 2) CPK 3) CMG 4) F 5) PFE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Outperformers: 

• 1) Oil Service +.9% 2) Gaming +.5% 3) Road & Rail +.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 

• LBTYA and OKS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 

• 1) TLT 2) CNP 3) JBLU 4) MAT 5) BAX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 

• 1) OKE 2) PLNT 3) WASH 4) GPX 5) LMT

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -45.2% Below 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 35.7% of Issues Advancing, 61.4% Declining
• 28 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 32.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.2%
• Vix 18.1 +4.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.20 +21.21%
• TRIN/Arms 1.05 -64.13%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg: 

• China Fires a Warning Shot at Yuan Speculators With Bank Bans. China has a message for currency speculators: the free lunch is over. The People’s Bank of China has suspended at least two foreign banks from conducting some cross-border yuan business until late March, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. The clampdown comes as the growing offshore-onshore spread makes it profitable for those who skirt capital controls to buy the currency at a discount in Hong Kong and sell it in Shanghai.
• China Outlook: Yuan to Weaken Further in 2016? (video)
• Perpetual Faith in China. Hong Kong's aging billionaires have been reducing investments in China as the economy's prospects dim. The latest sale, by New World Development's Cheng Yu-tung, has a whiff of desperation. 
• Australian Investor Mortgage Growth Slows to 17-Month Low. Home loans to Australian landlords grew at the slowest pace in 17 months as a regulatory crackdown forces lenders to raise interest rates and tighten lending standards. Investor housing credit expanded 9.1 percent in the 12 months to Nov. 30, the weakest pace since June 2014, according to data from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Growth has slowed for the fifth consecutive month, the data show. 
• Asian Stocks Poised for Second Year of Decline on Commodity Rout. Asia-Pacific stocks fell in light trading on the final day of the year, with the regional benchmark index heading for its first back-to-back annual decline since 2002, as energy shares followed crude oil lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan slipped 0.1 percent to 410.54 as of 8:10 a.m. in Hong Kong, with raw-material companies leading declines. The MSCI gauge that includes Japan headed for a 4.5 percent drop this year amid decelerating Chinese growth and a rout in commodities. That compares with a 0.2 percent advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and a 7.4 percent increase for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.
• Capital Economics Sees a Wild Ride for Iron Ore as $20s Loom. Iron ore may be in for a roller-coaster ride next year as prices swoon into the $20s, then rally to end higher after three annual losses, according to Capital Economics Ltd. The ore may initially drop as low-cost supplies rise further, helping the top producers to expand market share, according to Caroline Bain, the forecaster’s London-based senior commodities economist, who correctly predicted in June that prices would sink into the $30s this half.
• Clinton's New Drug-Price Attack. After shaking the pharmaceutical industry earlier this year with a tweet, Hillary Clinton is back on the drug-price warpath.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Obama Administration Preparing Fresh Iran Sanctions. Nearly a dozen companies and individuals targeted over ballistic-missile program. The Obama administration is preparing to impose its first financial sanctions on Iran since it forged a landmark nuclear agreement in July, presenting a major test for whether Tehran will stay committed to the deal. The planned action by the Treasury Department, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal, is directed at nearly a dozen companies and individuals in Iran, Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates for their alleged role...
• New Year’s Terror Threats Spur Responses in Turkey and Belgium. Citing Islamic State holiday plots, Ankara authorities arrest two suspects and Brussels cancels fireworks event. Turkish authorities arrested two suspected Islamic State extremists allegedly planning to kill revelers during New Year’s Eve celebrations in Ankara, and Belgium canceled the main fireworks display in Brussels, amid a heightened state of alert over possible Islamic State attacks around the holidays. 
• Ten Years After Blowup, Amaranth Investors Waiting to Get Money Back. Hedge fund collapsed in 2006 after bad bets on natural gas.
• Speaking Fees Meet Politics for Clintons. Former president spoke to groups with issues before State Department. At Hillary Clinton’s confirmation hearing for secretary of state, she promised she would take “extraordinary steps…to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest.”
• Fannie and Freddie Forever. The mortgage giants are once again claiming their paper has no risk for taxpayers. Yeah, right. Washington is a place where bad ideas go to live forever. How else to explain the latest innovation from federal regulators to keep Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac dominating the market for mortgage finance?

Fox News:

• ‘Highly provocative’: Iran rocket launch near US ship latest challenge for Washington. (video) Despite the Obama administration touting its Iran nuclear deal as a triumph of diplomacy that finally thaws a four-decade freeze, Tehran appears to be doing all it can to keep the flames of confrontation burning. The latest challenge was a missile launch over the weekend less than a mile from a U.S. aircraft carrier -- which came on the heels of two other similar incidents, two ballistic missile tests, and the harsh treatment of American prisoners including a Washington Post journalist.

MarketWatch.com:

• Ruble hits all-time low as oil rout dents commodity currencies. Crude drop ‘spilling over into commodity currencies’: analyst. 
• China faces even more painful choices in 2016.

CNBC:

• A $500M hit and a bleak forecast for retail. (video)
• Hiking minimum wage won't stop poverty: Fed paper. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Time For Torches & Pitchforks: The Little Guy Is About To Get Monkey-Hammered Again.
• Crude Oil Prices Suffer Biggest 2-Year Bloodbath On Record. (graph)
• The Minimum Wage Hike Hangover Arrives: Dining Out To Cost 10% More Starting January 1.
• The Wheels Just Fell Off: US Trucking Has Not Been This Bad Since The Financial Crisis. (graph)
• The Fed Just Gave The Treasury A Record $19 Billion Holiday Bonus.
• Swiss Army Chief Warns Of Social Unrest, Calls Upon Citizens To Arm Themselves.
• The Problem With Progressives: Everything Is Now A Taxpayer-Funded "Right".
• Stocks Flash Crash Into Close As Emerging Market, Commodity Carnage Spreads. (graph)

Business Insider:

• The US is reportedly planning new sanctions on Iran.
• The big banks are pulling out of China.
• The ISIS-linked Belgians suspected of a New Year's terror plot are part of motorcycle club called the Kamikaze Riders.
• Turkey says it foiled a ISIS terror plot for New Year's.
• The Department of Justice is opening an investigating Blue Bell Creameries.
• The House Intelligence chair wants answers on the latest NSA spying report.

Telegraph:

• Economic growth will disappoint again in 2016, warns IMF's Christine Lagarde. Managing director tells central banks to consider 'spillover' effects from raising interest rates in an uncertain world. 
• The 10 most seismic events in a year of living dangerously. From an economic slowdown in China, to the plunging oil price and Europe's migrant crisis, it's been another year of great unease in the global economy.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.5 -.75 basis point.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 71.5 -.5 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.17 -.04%.
• S&P 500 futures +.07%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 270K versus 267K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2190K versus 2195K prior.  

9:00 am EST

• ISM Milwaukee for December is estimated to rise to 48.5 versus 45.34 in November.

9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for December is estimated to rise to 50.0 versus 48.7 in November.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed balance sheet update could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Emerging Markets Currency Worries, Terrorism Fears, Oil Decline, Commodity/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.82 +4.60%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.53 +.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.38 -.09%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.34 +.56%

• ISE Sentiment Index 74.0 -11.90%

• Total Put/Call 1.02 +24.39%

• NYSE Arms 1.92 +183.42% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.31 -1.54%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,693.0 -.95%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.98 +1.93%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 16.96 -.56%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 71.49 -.67%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 357.05 +1.07%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.74 -.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 +1.75 basis points

• TED Spread 40.0 +2.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 +3.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.15 -.60%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .13% -7.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 122.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $42.42/Metric Tonne +2.62%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -27.5 +1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.5 +.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.90 -1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.56% unch.
• 53.8% chance of next Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 60.9% chance at April 27 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +6 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -321 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -29 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech/medical/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer: 

• Small-Cap Value -.8%

Sector Underperformers: 

• 1) Coal -5.4% 2) Airlines -1.5% 3) Oil Serivce -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• PBY, IEP, CNL, MIE, NHTC, BPT, TW, TGI, UDF, DVAX, MGPI, RWLK, AHGP, AIMT, KYN, SEMG, BAK, PAG, TOUR, EGN, KEX, WRLD and GSM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 

• 1) MAR 2) M 3) CF 4) MA 5) VZ

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 

• 1) PBR 2) CMG 3) PBR 4) DDD 5) JOY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Outperformers: 

• 1) Alt Energy +.1% 2) Computer Hardware +.1% 3) Drugs +.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 

• FXCM, WTW, OLED and SEDG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 

• 1) HLT 2) IP 3) THC 4) WTW 5) GIS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 

• 1) INTC 2) EPD 3) PBY 4) IEP 5) WASH

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -43.5% Below 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 35.9% of Issues Advancing, 61.5% Declining
• 49 New 52-Week Highs, 27 New Lows
• 34.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.5%
• Vix 17.0 +5.78%
• Total Put/Call 1.05 +28.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.98 +192.8%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg: 

• China seen ending share sale ban that drew foreign fund scorn. China stock investors are about to find out whether a budding equities recovery can cope with the end of a sales ban that's kept an estimated $185 billion of shares off the market. All seven strategists and fund managers surveyed by Bloomberg say it can, with those respondents expecting regulators to allow major shareholders to sell their investments when a six-month ban imposed at the height of the stock crash expires Jan. 8. The measure drew criticism at the time from foreign investors including Templeton Emerging Markets Group and UBS Wealth Management, who saw the intervention as a step too far as authorities struggled to stem a $5 trillion rout.
• China Sends Japan a ‘Don't Meddle’ Message Via an Ex-Navy Ship. Tensions are rising in the East China Sea after China deployed an armed, former navy frigate for the first time to challenge Japan’s control of contested islands in what may be an attempt to shift Tokyo’s attention away from disputes in the South China Sea. Three ships including the frigate still equipped with gun turrets and now operated by the Chinese coast guard sailed within the 12-mile exclusion zone that Japan claims around the islands on Dec. 26, said a Japanese foreign ministry official who asked not to be named, citing government policy. Japan lodged an official protest over the incident. The escalation in the East China Sea comes at a time of heightened tensions in the South China Sea after the U.S. Navy began freedom of navigation patrols there to challenge China’s claims in territorial contests with the Philippines and Vietnam. Japan is home to the U.S. Seventh Fleet, which is leading the patrols, and backs the U.S. effort. China has repeatedly urged Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to stay out of the South China Sea dispute.
• S. Korea's Factory Output Unexpectedly Falls on Export Decline. South Korea’s factory output missed estimates in November as poor exports due to weak global demand continue to weigh on production in Asia’s fourth-largest economy. Industrial production fell 0.3 percent from a year earlier, Statistics Korea said. Output fell 2.1 percent from October, the most since January this year. Exports declined in the first 11 months of this year and that trend is expected to continue, with an almost 12 percent drop forecast for this month.   
• Asian Stocks Pare 2015 Retreat Following Rallies in U.S., Europe. Asian stocks advanced, paring the regional measure’s annual retreat, as financial and technology shares gained following an equities rally in the U.S. and Europe. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent to 132.31 as of 10:20 a.m. in Tokyo.
• In World With Too Much Crude Oil, 1,100-Foot Steel Monsters Rule. The most destructive oil crash in a generation is giving ship owners a billion-dollar windfall. With the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries abandoning output limits in a drive for market share, ships that carry as much as 2 million barrels a trip are in demand to haul crude from the Middle East to Asia and North America. While oil prices fell 34 percent in 2015, average earnings for these carriers jumped to $67,366 a day, the most since at least 2009, according to Clarkson Plc, the world’s largest shipbroker. 
• Too Much Rubber, Too Few Tires Leaves Tappers in a Sticky Place. As rubber prices slumped toward a six-year low, 20 of 30 workers who drained the sticky latex from trees on Winai Chaikunanant’s plantation in Thailand quit. Even with income sharing, they earned less than the minimum wage. Winai isn’t faring much better. The 70-year-old loses money on every kilogram produced on the farm he’s tended for five decades because government subsidies aren’t big enough to make up the difference. Half his trees were left untapped this season, and he plans to raze about 100 rai (40 acres) to grow cassava or pineapple instead. And the market may only get worse for rubber growers.
• Noble Group(NBL) Shares Tumble After Moody's Cuts Rating to Junk. Noble Group Ltd.’s shares and bonds slumped after the commodity trader had its credit rating cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service on concerns about the company’s liquidity amid the rout in raw materials. The stock fell as much as 5.7 percent to 41.5 Singapore cents and traded at 42 cents at 9:55 a.m. local time. The shares have lost 63 percent this year, the most among members of the Straits Times Index. Noble Group’s dollar bonds due in 2020, its most liquid, were down 1.8 U.S. cents on the dollar at 67.7 cents, the lowest since Nov. 16, according to Bloomberg-compiled prices.
• Colorado Republican Says Trump Is Hurting Party. Swing-state Senator Cory Gardner says Republicans can't be "against people." A young up-and-coming Republican senator from a swing state assailed his party's presidential front-runner, Donald Trump, for hurting his party by spreading hate. "Anytime you present a message that is seen as hate," said Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado, "you're  going to have a negative impact." Gardner, a Senate freshman with impeccable conservative credentials, made these comments in an interview on the Charlie Rose Public Broadcast System television program. A shrewd and cautious politician, Gardner supports Marco Rubio's bid for the Republican nomination. The Coloradans'  anti-Trump rhetoric–stronger than that of most Republicans–underscores the concern among office-holders over the impact the billionaire showman is having on the party.
• NYSE Arca Rules Partly Responsible for August ETF Rout, SEC Says. A bout of market mayhem that halted trading in hundreds of exchange-traded funds in August was exacerbated by stock exchange rules intended to limit extreme price movements, according to a U.S. regulator’s report released Tuesday. The Securities and Exchange Commission’s analysis of the events on Aug. 24 said price bands imposed by exchange NYSE Arca restricted how quickly ETFs could rebound after steep price declines triggered halts. Arca’s narrow bands, which it has since proposed to widen, may have spurred more delays by limiting faster price adjustments, the regulator’s report said. 

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Spy Net on Israel Snares Congress. National Security Agency’s targeting of Israeli leaders also swept up the content of private conversations with U.S. lawmakers. President Barack Obama announced two years ago he would curtail eavesdropping on friendly heads of state after the world learned the reach of long-secret U.S. surveillance programs. But behind the scenes, the White House decided to keep certain allies under close watch, current and former U.S. officials said. Topping the list was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
• Not Even OPEC Can Fix Oil Glut. Pace of production outside Middle East and U.S. adds to uncertainty.
• The Clinton War on Women. If Hillary plays the sexism card, then Bill’s behavior is fair game.

MarketWatch.com:

• 5 black swans that could rock markets in 2016.

CNBC:

• Buffett subsidiary faces renewed misconduct claims. The mobile home subsidiary of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is strongly denying renewed accusations that it exploits minorities, as the controversy threatens to seep into the 2016 presidential race.
• Talk of this black swan gains momentum. Speculation is rising that Saudi Arabia's oil price strategy will force the kingdom to give up its dollar exchange peg.

Zero Hedge:

• The Big Short's Michael Burry Warns "The Little Guy Will Pay" For The Next Crisis. (video)
• Why Energy Investors Are Hoping Saudi Arabia And Iran's Oil Price Forecasts Are Dead Wrong. (graph)
• In Latest NSA Spying Scandal, World Learns Obama Lied Again; Congress Furious it Was Spied On.
• Sweden's First Month Of 'Islamic Multiculturalism' - Rapes, Acquittals, & Severed Heads.
• "Zero Confidence": 8 In 10 Americans Think Obama Is Losing To ISIS.
• The Herd Is Heading For A Cliff.
• The Russian Economy Is Cracking, "Social Unrest" Coming In "A Few Months", Official Warns. (graph)
• Hedge Funds Dropping Like Flies: Doug Hirsch's Seneca Capital Closing After 20 Years.
• WTI Slides After API Reports Surprisingly Large Inventory Build. (graph)
• Santelli Thanks Plunge Protection Team As Bond Bloodbath Sparks Buying Frenzy In Stocks & Commodities. (graph)

Business Insider:

• US: Iran fired rockets near American warships. An Iranian rocket came within 1,500 yards of American aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman in the Strait of Hormuz, a Pentagon official reportedly told CNN.
• China's unprecedented real estate bubble is collapsing.
• Wall Street is making fun of this crazy statement from a Chinese company.

Politico: 

• Kasich gains support of Ron Burkle. The billionaire investor has often supported Democrats in the past.

Reuters:

• Brazil primary budget deficit swells, debt seen climbing. Brazil's primary public sector budget deficit widened sharply in November, the central bank said on Tuesday, as falling tax revenues undermined government efforts to shore up public accounts amid a deepening recession. At 19.567 billion reais ($5.07 billion), the November primary shortfall was the third worst on record. The deficit, which represents revenues minus expenditures before debt interest payments, is a closely watched gauge of creditworthiness.
• Cuba sees growth halving to 2 percent on lower export revenues. Cuba is forecasting that economic growth will halve in 2016 to 2 percent from this year, and Cuban President Raul Castro on Tuesday blamed the decline on falling export revenues.

Financial Times:

• Warren Buffett faces worst year on stock market since 2009.

Telegraph:

• Oil price rout will bring end to era of Saudi Arabian largesse, warns Bank of America. Declining crude prices signal that an era of Saudi overspending is "firmly behind us".

The Independent:

• Isis 'fatwa' on female sex slaves tells militants how and when they can rape captured women and girls. (video) Thousands of women and girls from religious minorities have been captured and enslaved by the group. Isis has released a fatwa detailing how and when its fighters can rape female sex slaves – “one of the inevitable consequences of jihad”. The document, drawn up by the terrorist group’s “Committee of Research and Fatwas”, was revealed by Reuters news agency after being discovered among a huge trove of documents seized by US special forces in Syria.

Bild:

• EU's Oettinger Warns of 'Serious' Danger EU May Break Up. Cites number of countries with unstable or populist govts as reason for concern, citing interview with the European Commissioner.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.25 unch.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 72.0 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.52 -.08%.
• S&P 500 futures -.07%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales for November are estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.2% gain in October. 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,766,670 barrels versus a -5,877,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +411,110 barrels versus a +1,111,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to rise by +433,330 barrels versus a -661,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.09% versus a -.6% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone M3 data, $35B 5Y T-Note auction and the $29B 7Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Seasonality, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.20 -4.20%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.61 -.29%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.35 +.71%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.44 -1.96%

• ISE Sentiment Index 72.0 -15.29%

• Total Put/Call .82 -36.92%

• NYSE Arms .77 -54.28% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 89.06 -2.32%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,710.0 +1.29%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.53 +4.81%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.06 -.87%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 72.03 -.06%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 353.28 -1.29%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.76 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 -4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 37.5 -3.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 +3.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.58 -.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% unch.

• Yield Curve 122.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $42.31/Metric Tonne +2.45%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -28.7 +2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.2 +.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.80 -1.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.56% +3.0 basis points
• 54.5% chance of next Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 61.4% chance at April 27 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +197 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech/medical/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long