Monday, December 14, 2015

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Rising Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Worries, Hospital/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.01 -5.66%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.78 -.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.64 +.43%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.69 -3.91%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 +46.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.09 +1.87%
  • NYSE Arms .72 -53.27
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.29 +3.60%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,650.0 +14.78%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 82.02 +3.70%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.38 +2.37%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 77.43 -1.22%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 370.45 +4.47%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.36 -.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.25 -3.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 29.25 +4.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -36.75 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.16 -.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 127.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $39.06/Metric Tonne +1.98%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.70 +1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.0 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.70 +2.1 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.49 -1.0 basis point
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 1.16 +.28
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -138 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -247 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +89 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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