Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Election Uncertainty, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Yen Strength, Healthcare/REIT Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.5 +14.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.14 -.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.0 +1.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.75 +14.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 61.o +3.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.48 +42.31%
  • NYSE Arms .91 -.92
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.84 +1.7%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 634.0 +4.31%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.63 +2.76%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.94 -.37%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.69 +.32%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 247.74 +2.54%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.52 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 54.5 -6.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -46.25 +2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.17 -.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .35% +5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 100.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $65.33/Metric Tonne +1.48%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.3 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.2 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.0 +9.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73% -1.0 basis point
  • 68.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 70.0% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -217 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -31 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gamins in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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