Thursday, December 01, 2016

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.24 +6.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.87 +.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.98 +2.23%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.01 +6.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 +1.12%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +3.33%
  • NYSE Arms .56 -8.69%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.46 +.66%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 578.0 +2.80%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 106.63 -.81%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.37 -.47%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 41.76 +.80%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 272.77 +2.69%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.98 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.75 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 45.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -57.0 +2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.19 -.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .47% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 129.0 +4.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $78.36/Metric Tonne +8.71%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.20 +.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 61.30 +2.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.5 +2.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.0% +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Feb. 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -73 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +30 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -42 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/biotech/tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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