Monday, February 06, 2017

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Rising European Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Yen Strength, Energy/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.38 +3.74%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.47 -1.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.27 -1.15%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.13 -3.37%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 56.0 -30.0%
  • Total Put/Call 103.0 +98.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.32 +26.92%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.31 +1.61%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 371.0 +.36%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.48 +5.39%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.70 +2.82%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.02 -3.64%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 226.15 -.50%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 133.85 +.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 32.5 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 52.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.36 -.10%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .51% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 126.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $80.60/Metric Tonne -1.93%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.80 -2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 63.0 +7.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.80 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.02 -3.0 basis points
  • 40.80% chance of Fed rate hike at May 3 meeting, 65.1% chance at June 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -94 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +49 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +16 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my in my biotech/tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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