Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
  • PBOC Tightens Money Market Rates. (video)
  • Asia Inflation Surge Fueled by Currency Rout That’s Already Gone. The past week’s surprising pickup in Asia-Pacific inflation gauges may be fleeting. The New Zealand dollar jumped to a three-month high Tuesday after a central bank index of price-pressure expectations climbed to the highest since 2015. That came after January inflation readings for South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand exceeded expectations. Philippine price gains accelerated too, though by less than economists had been expected. A key question is how much of the price gains can be traced back to last quarter’s foreign-exchange rout, with every major Asian currency weakening against the dollar in the three months through December. This year’s recovery in local exchange rates, along with a plateau in crude oil markets, raises the prospect consumer price gains will slow as a result.
  • Japan Stocks Advance on Yen Slide While Oil Slumps. Japanese equities advanced after the yen retreated from a two-month high. Prospects elsewhere were mixed after U.S. stocks eked out gains, Treasuries rallied for a third day and crude oil nursed its worst two-day slump in four weeks. The Topix climbed after the Japanese currency dropped the most in almost two weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average touched an all-time high Tuesday on speculation the White House would deliver details on spending and tax plans, before the rally faded as oil majors slumped. Treasuries gained, sending the 10-year yield below 2.40 percent. Crude tumbled on concern U.S. inventories are increasing, while gold slipped for a second day. The Topix rose 0.2 percent, as gains by automakers overshadowed declines in energy shares. South Korea’s Kospi Index fell 0.6 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.1 percent and New Zealand’s benchmark was flat.
  • Demand for Treasuries Is Now a ‘Made in the U.S.A.’ Phenomenon. (video) Buy American, hire American. In the world’s biggest debt market, domestic purchasers have been faithfully fulfilling the first half of President Donald Trump’s inauguration decree. Demand for U.S. Treasuries has moved "from global to local," Bank of America Merrill Lynch rates strategists Carol Zhang and Shyam Rajan wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. Whether that turns out to be a good thing remains to be seen
  • Trump Sinks Drug Stocks Again on Medicare Drug Price Negotiation. President Donald Trump supports Medicare drug price negotiations, his spokesman said Tuesday, remarks that sent pharmaceutical stocks swinging again as investors tried to assess whether drugmakers will be forced into bidding wars for government business. “He’s for it, yes,” White House spokesman Sean Spicer said at a press briefing in response to a question asking to clarify Trump’s position on the matter.
  • Apple Hires Amazon’s(AMZN) Fire TV Head to Run Apple(AAPL) TV Business.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:
Busines Insider:
China Securities Journal:
  • PBOC's Market Rate Hikes Target Property Bubbles. Chinese central bank's recent market rate hikes also aim at financial deleveraging. Hikes also help ease pressure on yuan depreciation and capital outflows.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.25 +.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 29.25 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.0 -.03%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.14%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

  •  (ALK)/1.40
  • (CTSH)/.86
  • (GT)/.87
  • (HUM)/2.08
  • (JEC)/.63
  • (TWX)/1.19
  • (FWRD)/.55
  • (PPC)/.40
  • (PRU)/2.32
  • (WFM)/.39 
Economic Releases 
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,714,500 barrels versus a +6,466,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -580,200 barrels versus a -1,245,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +459,800 barrels versus a +1,568,000 barrel gain prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.23% versus a -.1% decline prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The $23B 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the Cowen Aerospace/Defense/Industrials conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.