Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Earnigs Concerns, Commodity/Telecom Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.41 -2.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.82 +.57%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.54 +.47%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.67 -5.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 66.0 -4.35%
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -15.7%

• NYSE Arms .88 -7.48%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.18 +.37%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 378.0 +1.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.60 +22.9%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 7.83 -5.26%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.27 -2.21%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 197.90 +3.29%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 137.16 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.0 unch.

• TED Spread 31.0 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.25 +2.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.02 -.44%

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .87% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 104.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $68.68/Metric Tonne n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.10 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 68.80 +3.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.4 -.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 -2.0 basis points
  

• 90.2% chance of Fed rate hike at July 26 meeting, 94.2% chance at Sept. 20 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +140 open in Japan 

• China A50 Futures: Indicating -26 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long