Friday, May 15, 2020

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Recession Fears, Escalating China Tensions, Technical Selling, Transport/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 32.2 -1.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.32 +.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.48 -1.71%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.93 +.52%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +55.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .79 -16.8%
  • NYSE Arms .96 +88.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.66 -.05%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 1,289.28 +1.1%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 110.19 +.88%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 239.50 +3.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.13 -.97%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 341.98 +.42%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.58 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 28.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  107.0 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 62.5 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.13 -.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .11% unch.
  • Yield Curve 47.25 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 90.40 USD/Metric Tonne +4.12%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -95.30 -25.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -300.60 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.6 +5.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.09 +4.0 basis points
  • 99.3% chance of no change at July 29th meeting, 99.3% chance of no change at Sept. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +23 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -148 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

No comments: