Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                  

Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:   
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Blaze:
  • Collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX had ties to Ukrainian government, WEF, and top Biden adviser. Curiously, the Ukrainian government launched a cryptocurrency donation website in March that was backed by FTX. CoinDesk reported in March, "'Aid for Ukraine,' which has the backing of crypto exchange FTX, staking platform Everstake, and Ukraine’s Kuna exchange, will route donated crypto to the National Bank of Ukraine, Everstake’s Head of Growth Vlad Likhuta told CoinDesk. Ukraine’s crypto-savvy Ministry of Digital Transformation is also involved."
Axios:
  • Bankman-Fried spent millions on Dem campaigns. It's unclear where Bankman-Fried's money came from. Forensic accountants and bankruptcy courts are on the case, but it could take months to untangle FTX's web of comingled funds. Bankman-Fried spent around $37 million during the last election cycle, almost all of which went to boosting Democratic candidates and causes. That made him the party's second-largest donor, according to OpenSecrets, and the sixth largest overall.
The Epoch Times:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.75 -9.0 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 70.75 -7.0 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +2.6%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.2%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  49.1 +1.1%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.46 +4.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.6 -.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.3%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (BMO)/3.07
  • (BIG)/-2.94
  • (DG)/2.55
  • (GIII)/1.84
  • (KR)/.82
  • (PDCO)/.57
  • (TD)/2.06
After the Close:
  • (AMBA)/.20
  • (AOUT)/.18
  • (MRVL)/.59
  • (ULTA)/4.13
  • (ZS)/.26
  • (ZUMZ)/.17
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Nov.
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
  • Personal Spending for Oct. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.6% gain in Sept. 
  • The PCE Core MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in Sept.
  • The PCE Core YoY for Oct. is estimated to rise +5.0% versus a +5.1% gain in Sept.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 235K versus 240K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1570K versus 1551K prior.
 10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for Oct. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
  • ISM Manufacturing for Nov. is estimated to fall to 49.7 versus 50.2 in Oct.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Nov. is estimated to fall to 45.9 versus 46.6 in Oct.
  • ISM Employment is estimated at 50.0 versus 50.0 in Oct.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicles Sales for Nov. is estimated to fall to 14.6M versus 14.9M in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Eurozone PMI report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and (NTGR) analyst day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Rising China Re-Opening Expectations, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.6 -1.1%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.21%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.6 +1.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.5 +.28%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.8 -.17%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 42.8 +1.1% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 -5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.47 +42.7%
  • NYSE Arms .79 +38.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.24 -3.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.57 -.02%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 375.0 +15.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.64 +2.2% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 453.68 +1.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.79 -1.94%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 230.36 -2.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.6 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 40.0 basis points -2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -33.5 basis points +2.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  146.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 127.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.21 +2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.73 +.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -72.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.24%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 146.0 euros/megawatt-hour +7.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.9 -5.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.5 -2.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.1 -5.0 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.70 -.05:  Growth Rate +11.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.4 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.53 +5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.26% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.02% unch.: CPI YoY +7.49% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +6.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 49.0%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 42.9%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -81.8%(+3.7 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +266 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +228 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +81 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my commodity/industrial/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                

Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:   
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.75 -5.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 77.75 -6.25 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  47.8 +.14%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.59 -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.1 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.36%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (DCI)/.70
  • (FRO)/.38
  • (HRL)/.50
  • (LESL)/.31
  • (WOOF)/.16
  • (RY)/2.66
  • (TITN)/1.16
After the Close:
  • (BOX)/.30
  • (FIVE)/.14
  • (LZB)/.85
  • (NTNX)/-.12
  • (OKTA)/-.24
  • (PVH)/2.18 
  • (CRM)/1.22
  • (SMTC)/.63
  • (SNOW)/.05
  • (SPLK)/.25
  • (SNPS)/1.84
  • (VSCO)/.23
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for Nov. is estimated to fall to 200K versus 239K in Oct.
8:30 am EST
  • Second 3Q GDP readings. 
  • Advance Goods Trade Balance for Oct. is estimated at -$90.6B versus -$92.2B in Sept.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Sept.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
9:45 am EST
  • MNI Chicago PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 47.0 versus 45.2 in Oct.
 10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for Oct. is estimated to fall -5.7% versus a -10.2% decline in Sept.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Oct. is estimated to fall to 10250K versus 10717K in Sept.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,907,570 barrels versus a -3,690,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,737,000 barrels versus a +3,058,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,430,500 barrels versus a +1,718,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.18% versus a +1.0% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • US Fed Beige Book release.
Upcoming Splits
  • (TECH) 4-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, China Non-Manufacturing PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, CSFB Industrials, Barclays Automotive/Mobility Conference, (LESL) investor day, (RIO) investor seminar and the (NVS) investor day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.