Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Earnings Outlook Worries, Seasonality, Bargain Hunting, Utility/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.5 -1.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .85%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.8 +1.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.9 -.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -.66%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.9 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 124.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -12.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.40 +79.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.18 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 366.70 -.98%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 421.0 +7.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.65 -4.5% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 362.84 -1.69%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.31 +.39%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 255.19 +.48%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.73 +.14%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 44.25 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -52.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  140.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 130.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.19 -4.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.27 -.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.23% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -68.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 109.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.3 -.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.5 -.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .7 +1.0 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.97 -.19:  Growth Rate +11.3% unch., P/E 17.2 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.73 +8.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.18% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.02% unch.: CPI YoY +7.60% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 48.1%(+5.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 42.2%(-5.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.6%(-.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long