Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Diminished China Hard Landing Fears, Dollar Strength, Bargain-Hunting, Commodity/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.0 -1.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 50.3 +2.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.5 +.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 -.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.2 -2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -5.7%

• NYSE Arms .80 +15.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 92.53 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 360.18 -1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 500.0 +18.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 119.17 -3.8% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 365.61 -1.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 217.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 214.20 -3.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 283.44 -4.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.91 -.13%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.5 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 41.0 basis points +5.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -53.75 basis points +2.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  171.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 131.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.13 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.71 +.82%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.11% unch.
  

• Yield Curve -50.25 basis points (2s/10s) +7.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 86.7 USD/Metric Tonne +4.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 115.0 euros/megawatt-hour -8.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.9 +4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.2 +1.0 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.7 -2.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.66 -.28:  Growth Rate +12.1% -.2 percentage point, P/E 16.1 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .97 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.60% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.09% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 51.1%(+4.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 45.9%(+4.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.8%(-.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +119 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +101 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -53 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long