Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Regional Bank Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.0 -5.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .70% -14.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.2 +.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 170.6 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.91 -2.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 27.1 -5.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 -12.0
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -4.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.02 -36.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.6 -5.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 331.1 -6.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 409 +21
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.45 -5.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 264.76 -5.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.2 -3.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 211.3 -4.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 139.6 -2.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.37%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.5 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 21.0 basis points -1.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 172.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 926.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 98.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.48 +.29%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.42% -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 122.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.16%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.4 +2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.7 -1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.0 +.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(377 of 500 reporting) +1.7% -1.2 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.50 +.19:  Growth Rate +9.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.9 +.4
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.17% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +51.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.29 +.35: Growth Rate +61.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 27.4 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.10 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .60 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -31.0 basis points (2s/10s) -11.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +1.24% -1.02 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.63% unch.: CPI YoY +3.28% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st FOMC meeting: 70.4%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 20th meeting: 61.8%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +400 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +79 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +116 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/transport/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long