Thursday, January 11, 2024

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Jitters, Technical Selling, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.5 -1.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.0% +73.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.5 +4.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.0 -.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.63 -1.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.72 -3.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 135.0 -4.0
  • Total Put/Call .94 -26.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.20 -16.7% 
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$106.2M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.90 -1.0%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 330.3 +.52%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 344 +18
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.78 -.4% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 211.10 -.74%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 157.0 basis points -6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.11 -2.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 174.3 -.79%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 119.0 +2.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.33 +.25%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 21.75 basis points n/a
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 143.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 960.0 -6.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 75.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.27 +.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 132.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.8 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.1 +1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.90 +.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.6 -2.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(21 of 500 reporting) +9.1% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.46 +.01:  Growth Rate +11.9% unch., P/E 19.5 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.04% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 290.73 +.15: Growth Rate +36.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .49 +4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -34.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.21% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 65.9% +.5 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +2.97% -35.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 68.1%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 62.6%(+9.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +221 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -57 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +202 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my utility/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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