Friday, January 19, 2024

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Gaining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.5 -4.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .65% -20.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.0 +1.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 173.97 +.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.5 -1.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.9 -3.5% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 142.0 +21.0
  • Total Put/Call .94 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .81 -35.7% 
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$223.7M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.88 -1.43%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 330.29 -2.1%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 315 -11
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.7 -1.6% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 206.4 -2.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.2 -2.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 178.28 -.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 122.8 +2.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.4 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.0 basis points unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 145.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 944.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 74.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.98 +.1%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.35% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 129.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.4 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.5 +8.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -12.4 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.5 -1.9 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(52 of 500 reporting) -2.9% +1.0 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.73 +.03:  Growth Rate +10.0% unch., P/E 19.7 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.71% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.35 +.20: Growth Rate +37.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.1 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .91 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .61 -20.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -25.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.39% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 64.2% -1.4 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 52.6%(+8.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 50.6%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +303 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +172 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

No comments: