Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries criticized Michigan Democratic Representative Haley Stevens for endorsing a Republican in her state’s Senate race but deferred discussion about her potential punishment. 
• Democratic Party groups lost a bid to temporarily block the Trump administration from pressuring states to set aside mail-in ballots of people the US claims are likely non-citizens.  
• Global oil demand is set to drop by about 3 million barrels a day in 2026 and will take a year to recover to levels seen before the US-Iran war, according to Vitol Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy.
• The US is planning to ask NATO allies to contribute more money to a key weapons-delivery program for Ukraine, sources said, a sign that US defense support for Kyiv continues despite lingering tension between Trump and Ukraine's president. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day: Morning Briefing Asia.  

• @ZeroHedge

• IG Tech blowing through IG to dot com levels. The last clean balance sheet is no more.     
• US Attacks Iran's Qeshm Island On Election Eve.
• Wall Street's Midterm Cheat Sheet: The Likeliest Outcome Is The Worst For Stocks.
• *DISNEY EYES THOUSANDS OF LAYOFFS; MANAGERS ASKED TO CUT 20%.
• *ORACLE IS SAID TO NEAR $10B SHARE SALE AT 11% DISCOUNT.
• Trump, Netanyahu At Odds Over Restarting Iran War.
• Syria Says It's Considering Joining Saudi-Led Mecca Defense Pact.
• Supreme Court Rejects DOJ Request For California To Set Aside 20,000 Ballots. 
• "Kill Me Clinics": Disturbing New Industry Quietly Spreads Across America.
• 'Epstein Files' Include Information Pertaining To National Security.
• 'The Coup Is Underway': Kunstler Sees A 'Turnstile Into The Next Phase Of The Fourth Turning'.
• Robot Mowers Invade America's Golf Courses, Putting Groundskeepers On Notice. 
• Trump Says 'No Rush' On Renewing Iran War, Oil Prices 'Dropping Like A Rock'. 
• AI/Tech Wrecks As Crude Carnage & Macro Malaise Sparks Bond Bid, Gold Gains.                   

• @CNBC

• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.  
• Futures are little changed as investors weigh Apple earnings; U.S. midterm elections loom: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Fabrinet, Clorox, Apple, Palantir & more. 
• Apple’s stock drops on weak margin forecast in Ternus’ first earnings report.   
• Palantir reports booming U.S. commercial revenue growth, topping government for first time. 

• @WallStEngine

• APPLE $AAPL Q1' 27 OUTLOOK (EARNINGS CALL). Revenue: +7% to +10% YoY (Est. +6.1%). Gross Margin: 45%-46% (Est. 46.3%). Services: +8% to +9% YoY. OpEx: $20.4B-$20.8B (Est. $20.23B). Gross margin reflects higher memory costs and Siri AI ramp costs. 
• BLOOM ENERGY $BE & CALIFORNIA RESOURCES SIGN DEAL TO EXPLORE 1 GW+ OF POWER GENERATION IN CALIFORNIA. The companies signed a non-binding MOU to develop solid-oxide fuel cell projects paired with carbon capture and storage. Bloom would supply its fuel cell technology, while CRC's Carbon TerraVault would provide CO2 transportation and permanent storage. 
• ANTHROPIC IPO INVESTORS PUSH FOR LOWER $1.5T–$1.6T VALUATION: WSJ. Major institutional investors are reportedly urging Anthropic to pursue a more conservative IPO valuation of $1.5T to $1.6T, well below the roughly $2T valuation discussed in recent months.
• Apple $AAPL Q4'26 revenue growth by segment (YoY). By product: - iPhone: +17%. - Services: +10%. - Mac: +24%. - iPad: -10%. - Wearables, Home and Accessories: -8%. By region: - Americas : +10%. - Europe : +12%. - Greater China : +21%. - Japan : -1%. - Rest of Asia Pacific: +15%. Total revenue: +12%. 
• PALANTIR $PLTR CEO ALEX KARP: "IT IS OUR FIRM AND UNWAVERING INTENT TO TAKE THE ENTIRE MARKET, THE WHOLE THING." In his Q3 shareholder letter, Karp said Palantir has "essentially doubled our entire business since the same quarter last year," with revenue up 96% to $2.3 billion.  

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.25 +.5 basis point  
• China Sovereign CDS 37.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 90.70 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%. 
• Crude Oil 96.61/bbl. +.2%. 
• Gold 3,954.6 USD/t oz. -.37%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.14 +.22%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.29 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 122.7 +.04%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.91% -2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.89% +4.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.69%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.02%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.3%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.