Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Transport/Biotech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.4 +.5%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .17 -2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.07 +2.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.4 -.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 125.8 -.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.5 +2.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.2 -1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.3 -1.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(377 of 500 reporting) +12.1% -.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 318.93 +.71:  Growth Rate +18.5% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.4 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.40% -8.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 504.64 +1.56: Growth Rate +22.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 28.1 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 -15.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 61.25 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis point
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 164.4 -1.8% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.5% -.2 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.7% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.05% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.34 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 75.0% (+4.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 50.0%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +550 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +47 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/transport/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.8% 2) Foods -2.6% 3) Software -2.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • MDT, TEAM, PAYC, DHR, LPLA, CAMT, ICLR, ASGI, RYI, ENB, LPX, CDNS, EXPE, INTU, APPF, CAG, GLBE, IOT, VALE, LDOS, VMC, FVRR, NICE, SGI, ALLE, FROG, HRI, LQDA, GPC, IPGP, FELE and SSTK
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HUN 2) WEN 3) CDNS 4) GIS 5) SEDG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) OTLK 2) GIS 3) OEC 4) RR 5) SGI
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) XLF 3) SMH 4) IYZ 5) KWEB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Digital Health +3.4% 2) Airlines +2.8% 3) Shipping +1.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MASI, ZIM, ETOR, KNF, IRON, NESR, NCLH, WING, WOLF, RXO, TRIP, EYPT, DFIN, SEPN, KW, KD, CALY, SON, AERO, LITE, BETA, FIGR, TWST, PI, BETA, DFTX, ITRI, FIGR, ATEX, LUV, FLR, FLY, PSKY, AMSC, KRYS, CAKE, ZGN, VSEC, TCMD, WBTN, SEDG, ELF, HSAI, MEG, ORA, MAT, SOLS, UPST, RSI, NWG, GNRC, HSHP, BLCO, TRUP, CNXC, DBD, GSHD, CUK, CCEP, MT, CEG, CUZ, EW, LINC, INTA, ROL, BIO, HURN, GSK, SAN, NPB, FLNG, ABNB, AFRM, FIG, LIND, LBRT, EXPO, CNH, CAR, WTTR, RYAN and SKM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) KLAR 2) TROX 3) UA 4) SEDG 5) SLVP 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ZIM 2) GVH 3) MASI 4) KNF 5) EGG
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) XLK 3) KRE 4) XLV 5) XLU
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ADI)/2.31
  • (CAMT)/.81
  • (FDP)/.28
  • (GRMN)/2.40
  • (GPN)/3.16
  • (PODD)/1.46
  • (JLL)/7.35
  • (MCO)/3.43
  • (SEDG)/-.26
  • (SAH)/1.50
  • (TECK)/.71
  • (WING)/.83
After the Close: 
  • (CAR)/-.38
  • (BKNG)/48.69
  • (CVNA)/1.13
  • (CF)/2.43
  • (CAKE)/.99
  • (CYH)/-.05
  • (CRH)/1.52
  • (DASH)/.59
  • (EIX)/1.38
  • (LOPE)/3.19
  • (JACK)/1.08
  • (TAP)/1.15
  • (OXY)/.17
  • (OII)/.26
  • (OMC)/2.68
  • (PAAS)/.90
  • (RS)/2.83
  • (RGLD)/2.59
  • (WH)/.89
Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

  • Census releases Nov./Dec. Housing Starts Data.
  • Durable Goods Orders for Dec. is estimated to fall -2.0% versus a +5.3% gain in Nov.
  • Durables Ex Transports for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
  • NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for Feb. 

9:15 am EST

  • Industrial Production MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
  • Manufacturing Production for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
  • Capacity Utilization for Jan. is estimated to rise to 76.5% versus 76.3% in Dec. 

2:00 pm EST

  • The FOMC Jan. 28th Meeting Minutes. 

4:00 pm EST

  • Total Net Long-Term TIC Flows. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, 20Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly API crude oil stock report, Barclays Industrial Conference, (POWL) annual meeting, (PLXS) annual meeting and the Citi Industrial Tech/Mobility Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +5.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.7 +1.1
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 38.0% of Issues Advancing, 59.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.20 -2.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$.3M
  • 129 New 52-Week Highs, 54 New Lows
  • 66.8% (-1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 -4.0
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 25.0% -3.0 percentage points
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 30+ days 35% n/a
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 11.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US strikes Iran by June 30th 50.0% -3.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 99.0 +.9%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 528.0 +3.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.13 +.3%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 131.5 +.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 35.0 (FEAR) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 14.6 -35.0%
  • Vix 21.5 +1.5%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -32.1%

Monday, February 16, 2026

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Zerohedge
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @TheSCIF
  • One of the most important Epstein documents exposed was an email conversation from March 19, 2015, with the subject "Preparing for Pandemics" between Jeffery Epstein, Terje Rod-Larsen, and Walter Kemp, disscussing the "next steps" to involve the WHO and the ICRC, who are also all connected or associated with Bill Gates. There are no coincidences.
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @ExxAlerts
  • @LaraLogan
  • A message to @LeaderJohnThune from myself and 12 other members of the House: 300+ days of delay is enough. Invoke the standing filibuster. Debate the SAVE (America) Act in the open. Vote. Pass it. Send it to the President’s desk. Election integrity is not optional. The country is watching, Senator Thune. Is John Thune listening? (pic)
  • @ScottPresler
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @GoldenAgeTimes2
  • @chrismartenson
  • @ToneySeruga
  • Good Morning ! "Please find attached emails from foreign Dominion employees, contractors and agents planning and conspiring with Chinese individuals working with Hewlett Packard to intentionally mislabel product identification numbers in order to circumvent new certification for use in the United States. Additionally, foreign Dominion employees, contractors and agents conspired and planned to have Chinese individuals working for Hewlett Packard modify and make changes to firm ware contained in the U.S. election equipment. Foreign Dominion "tested" Chinese changes outside of the United States."Every stolen election conspiracy was true! (pic)
  • @NVICLoeDown
  • @HarrisonHSmith
  • @hodgetwins
  • @VigilantFox
  • @RealHickory
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @TimRunsHisMouth
  • @insiderwave_
  • BREAKING. Rep. Gilbert Cisneros just disclosed up to ~$6.3mil worth of new trades. This disclosure stands out because he sits on Committee on Armed Services and subcommittees of Intelligence and Special Operations and Military Personnel. He also previously served as Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness under Biden. The disclosure includes purchases in 10 different military defense stocks:
  • @alon_mizrahi
  • @mattvanswol
  • @mazemoore
  • @OwenShroyer1776
  • Things we've seen in Epstein Files: Baby farms, black market babies, gynecologist for victims, Epstein's "dentist", torture video, [old man] thrilling hunt, buying 6 mo old babies, young female associates suicides, whoops (?), connections to banking/tech/politics/royalty/9-11, death/rape art, cloning, eugenics, pandemic planning, super humans, videos/images of [dead?] people, discussions of minors Potential Code Language: jerky, ice cream, pizza, grape soda, tuna, whoops, cream cheese, Chinese cookie. Did I miss anything?
  • @JEcheverriZ
  • @0hour1
  • @FurkanGozukara
  • @VividProwess
  • @TeamTrump47
  • @BrandonStraka
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%.
  • Gold 4,970.5 USD/t oz. -1.5% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 +.04%. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.25 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.6 +1.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.03% -2.0 basis points. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.43% -6.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.1 +1.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.5%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.9%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Sunday, February 15, 2026

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Zerohedge 
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (HAS).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @RandyRRQuaid
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @GenFlynn
  • @ElectionWiz
  • @guntherEagleman
  • @DC_Draino
  • @RenzTom
  • @DisrepectedThe
  • I reviewed more Epstein files at DOJ. Here's what you need to know: Thousands of victims. Mountains of evidence. ONE accomplice in jail. This is a global sex trafficking network where the rich and powerful walked free while victims were ignored. I've accumulated a list of witnesses, co-conspirators, and predators. If they don't show up for testimony, I'll support subpoenas. -@NancyMace. If arrests don't happen soon, vigilante justice will commence. (video)
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @Hustle_Bitch
  • @hodgetwins
  • @17QStorm
  • @wideawakeawake_media
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @SarahisCensored
  • @thematrixb0t
  • @BillMelugin_
  • @KariLake
  • @BBMagaMom
  • @GeneralMCNews
  • @JackUnheard
  • @joelpollak
  • @LaurenWitzkeDE
  • @LilaGraceRose
  • @illuminatibot
  • @DiligentDenizen
  • @BarnettforAZ
  • @KariLake
  • At her press conference today, @KristiNoem said, “no state could use more (election) improvement than Arizona.” She’s absolutely right. Arizona is Ground Zero for election malfeasance. I am confident that this administration is ready to deliver the people of Arizona the free and fair elections they deserve. (pic)
  • @GordonGChang
  • @GerryCallahan
  • @Cernovich
  • @CA_Matthius
  • @drawandstrike
  • @GeneralMCNews
  • @aakashgupta
  • @robinmonotti
  • @AutismCapital
  • @LizCrokin
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com: