Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.75 +1.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 38.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.95 USD/Metric Tonne +.53%. 
  • Crude Oil 72.33/bbl. -1.2% 
  • Gold 4,073.40 USD/t oz. -1.8%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.39 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.82 -.07%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 121.2 +.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.49% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.88% +3.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.38%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Crypto Carnage, Quarter-End Profit-Taking, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.9 +1.2%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.1 +.7% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.24 +3.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.24 +.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 142.2 +1.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 54.4 +4.0% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 +.9
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.8 +2.3
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.1 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.8 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 500 reporting) +16.5% +.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 366.17 -.58:  Growth Rate +24.5% -.2 percentage point, P/E 20.2 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.5% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 845.33 -n/a: Growth Rate +63.0% -n/a, P/E 20.0 +n/a 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 30.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.6 -3.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.20 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.7% +.6 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.49% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 -8.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for September 16th FOMC meeting: 51.6% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 43.8%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -430 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -113 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) AI Innovation -8.4% 2) Semis -8.3% 3) Alt Energy -5.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • UMC, SYM, NBXG, NPO, DRD, HL, BEAM, KEP, MSTR, TBN, BILI, WBI, PSLV, PKX, SKE, CCL, OUST, WYFI, TSM, SMCI, IVZ, ESI, CDE, MOD, ESI, SMCI, WPP, GEV, EQPT, IDR, AMKR, MKSI, ASYS, QUIK, ERO, ASML, WDC, ALGM, ASX, AMAT, VSH, VICR, ENTG, SHAZ, SUNB, VRT, CRDO, VELO, FLNC, ZSQR, HQ and PRIM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NFE 2) VXX 3) ARCC 4) BTG 5) JCI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AMC 2) PRIM 3) BTGO 4) POET 5) SNDK
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) QTUM 2) SOXX 3) HACK 4) NASA 5) MAGS

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Services +4.1% 2) Insurance +2.3% 3) Pharma +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • BLZE, MAAS, ARQQ, FDMT, EPC, TOYO, RGNX, INFQ, GHRS, AKTS, OLMA, TENX, NUCL, PRAA, VKTX, VRNS, CLPT, FENC, QURE, WAY, BWIN, HURN, PAYP, EYPT, EVMN, IRTC, LGND, GNK, DCTH, AVTX, KFY, EZPW, ZETA, GEHC, ACIW, GRRR, CHWY, NOW, PGR, ELVN, KNSL, MUR, RYTM, SRRK, JANX, LMAT, TARS, T, INSM, KYIV, AVBP and CTNM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GGLL 2) IRDM 3) FEZ 4) NICE 5) FHN 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) EPC 2) QNT 3) INFQ 4) BBBY 5) BLZE
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XBI 2) DRAM 3) IGV 4) GRID 5) XLV
Charts: 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (PAYX)/1.31
After the Close: 
  • (FUL)/1.40
  • (JEF)/1.16
  • (MU)/20.76
  • (WS)/.73 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • The 1Q Current Account Account Balance is estimated at -$210.6B versus $190.7B in 4Q.

10:00 am EST

  • New Home Sales for May is estimated to rise to 640K versus 622K in April. 

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -3,937.800 barrels versus a -8,263,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,290,830 barrels versus a -906,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -978,830 barrels versus a +951,000 barrel gain prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.1% versus a +1.4% gain prior.  

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's stress test results, 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Wolfe Research Consumer Day, (CASY) investor Day, (NVDA) annual meeting and the JPMorgan Natural Resources Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -2.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 20.0 -1.1
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
  • 54.0% of Issues Advancing, 43.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .83 -2.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$19.1M
  • 41 New 52-Week Highs, 82 New Lows
  • 55.0% (+1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 55.8 -2.5
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% unch. 
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15th 32.0% -11.0 percentage points 
  • Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31st 10.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31st 8.0% -3.0 percentage points
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 14.0% unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.2 -2.7%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 71.0 +8.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 70.0% -10.0 percentage points
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 458.25 +13.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 256.1 -1.8%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 163.0 -2.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 29.0 (FEAR) -7.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.4 +8.0%
  • Vix 18.9 +9.4%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -1.1%

Monday, June 22, 2026

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.75 -.25 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 38.0 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%. 
  • Crude Oil 73.98/bbl. -.12% 
  • Gold 4,174.0 USD/t oz. -.67%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.38 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.92 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.8 +.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.50% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.85% -2.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 +.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.38%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.19%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.47%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Sector Rotation, Technical Selling, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.3 -.1%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.8 -1.3% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +3.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.27 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.0 -.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 140.47 -1.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 52.3 +.1% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 +.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.2 -2.1
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.5 -1.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.1 +.4
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -.7
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +16.1% -2.7 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 366.75 +1.47:  Growth Rate +24.7% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.4 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.52% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 935.83 +16.68: Growth Rate +80.5% +3.3 percentage points, P/E 18.3 -.6 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 -1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve 27.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.7 -.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.20 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.1% -1.7 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.51% +5.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.78 -9.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for September 16th FOMC meeting: 51.6% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 43.8%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +720 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -70 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +125 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/biotech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Space -3.7% 2) Internet -2.4% 3) Software -2.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TEO, AZO, LGND, PKX, SKM, NFLX, FOXA, CTSH, ACN, SUV, RBLX, AVAV, WBI, AGI and ARQQ
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) PZZA 2) WMB 3) ACN 4) ASHR 5) SOC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AVAV 2) RBLX 3) BRCB 4) RGC 5) NFLX
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLK 2) SMH 3) XLF 4) RSPT 5) XAR