Friday, October 16, 2020

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,507.03 +.78%




 



















 
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.  

Indices
  • DJIA 28,715.90 +.62%
  • NASDAQ 11,560.22 +4.3%
  • Russell 2000 1,643.56 +.36%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 44.04 -1.19%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 187.01 +.08%
  • Wilshire 5000 35,938 +1.63%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,288.28 +1.23%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,220.40 +.28%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 683.08 +1.19%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,329.30 +1.14%
  • NYSE Technology 3,290.93 +1.22%
  • Transports 11,896.19 +.52%
  • Utilities 886.03 +1.23%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 46.93 -2.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 45.71 -.09%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,256.16 +.48%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 898.19 -.01%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 423,459 -.07%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 103 -377
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -42.14 +1.22%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 471,536 +2.08%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,111,762 +1.61%
  • Total Put/Call .92 +11.9%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.89 -7.57%
  • ISE Sentiment 122.0 -14.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .79 +37.50
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 240.0 -192.0 points
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.4 -.15%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.60 +6.80%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.51 -1.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.12 -2.37%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,492.83 +1.07%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.363 Trillion -.43%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$16.441 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 34.8 +.1%
  • AAII % Bears 35.8 -8.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 151.48 +.22%
  • Crude Oil 40.81 +.94%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 116.62 -3.23%
  • Natural Gas 2.75 +1.41%
  • Heating Oil 117.63 -1.12%
  • Gold 1,906.20 -1.6%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 188.23 +.73%
  • Copper 306.35 -.68%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 287.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.41%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.98 USD/Metric Tonne +1.77%
  • Lumber 537.80 -4.0%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 919.45 +.4%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +35.23% -.7 percentage point
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 3.6% +.1 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% -5.0 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -3.91 +14.4%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 140.46 -65.8%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 158.32 +.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 134.2 -15.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.50 -18.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.0 -1.9 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 11/5
  • US Dollar Index 93.68 +.68%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,650.55 -.29%
  • Bitcoin/USD 11,375.08 +2.95%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.96 -1.11%
  • Yield Curve 59.25 -3.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield .74% -3.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.111 Trillion +1.09%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.30 -3.21%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 381.83 +.66%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 127.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.4 -.81%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 219.65 +1.1%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 49.73 -1.47%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.96 +6.63%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 97.40 -1.62%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.26 +.5%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72% -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.5 -.25 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 -1.0 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 55.33 +3.36%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 522.0 +1.48%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 72.12 +5.55%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 204.80 +2.86%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 82.5 -2.5 basis points
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 67.88 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $5.518 Trillion +.13%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 962.40 -.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 866,250 +.93%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 6.8% -70.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.81% +6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 798,900 -.72%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 48.2 +.2 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.2% +30.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.18/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,561.0 -17.5%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,053.80 +4.6%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 100.75 -14.4%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 286,488 +1.05%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value unch.
Leading Sectors
  • Paper +4.0%
  • I-Banks +3.1%
  • Internet +1.8%
  • Software +1.8%
  • Healthcare Providers +1.8%
Lagging Sectors
  • Banks -1.7% 
  • REITs -2.2%
  • Airlines -2.5%
  • Energy -2.9%
  • Oil Service -3.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)
  • PQG, DLTH, FUBO, ANAB, SXT, HGEN, COWN, WRK, IOVA, CHWY, ZM, ORA, ADSK, NFIN, FSLR and CAT
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)
  • CMC, VFC, RDFN, CFG, XENT, FSLY, APO, DK, BCLI, SLB and NKLA
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

 

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, US Economic Data, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Healthcare/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.4 -2.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 240.0 +47.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.91 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.12 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.5 -.29%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 124.0 +12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .90 +18.4%
  • NYSE Arms .76 +13.4
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.35 -2.02%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 808.66 -.48%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.74 -3.56%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 127.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.60 -.55%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 204.68 -1.74%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.26 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.25 -1.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.25 +3.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  82.25 -2.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.34 +.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 59.25 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.0 USD/Metric Tonne +3.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 134.2 -4.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.50 -2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.0 -1.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.71 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +135 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/consumer staple/tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -2.7% 2) Energy -1.5% 3) Shipping -.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • LMND, EOG, GRA, SMPL, PTON, RDFN, PLUG, SNBR, RAVN, XENT, VFC, CFG, DK, TWST, GME, FSLY, APO, HIBB, MRTN, VIVO, SLB, JBHT, PLCE, LMPX, FTHM and NKLA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HTZ 2) MYL 3) AR 4) UAA 5) SAVE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NKLA 2) NGL 3) WPX 4) FSLY 5) CMC
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Utilities +1.4% 2) Pharma +1.0% 3) Biotech +1.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CIT, NAV, PQG, ANAB, HGEN, FUBO, DLTH, SPCE, NLTX, NFIN, IOVA, COWN, NLTX, IPOC, CHWY, TDC and VRTX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FLEX 2) HTZ 3) CYH 4) VFC 5) TACO
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NKLA 2) FSLY 3) WPX 4) WYNN 5) NGL
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

 

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Friday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.5 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 39.75 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.21 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 190.0 -3.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.55 -1.13%
  • FTSE 100 futures +.91%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.32%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (ALLY)/.70
  • (BMI)/.38
  • (BK)/.94
  • (JBHT)/1.28
  • (KSU)/1.90
  • (SLB)/.13
  • (STT)/1.41
  • (VFC)/.47
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.6% gain in Aug.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.7% gain in Aug.
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in Aug.
9:15 am EST
  • Industrial Production MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
  • Capacity Utilization for Sept. is estimated to rise to 71.8% versus 71.4% in Aug.
  • Manufacturing Production for Sept. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.0% gain in Aug.
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for Aug. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in July.
  • Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Oct. is estimated to rise to 80.5 versus 80.4 in Sept.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI report and the (SAFM) investor day could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finished mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

 

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Virus Worries, Biden Presidency/Tax Hike Fears, Earnings Jitters, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing in Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.3 +3.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 171.0 -160.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.80 -.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.18 +.36%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.5 +4.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 -9.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .75 +7.14%
  • NYSE Arms .84 unch.
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.69 +1.55%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 812.91 +.55%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.38 +5.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 +7.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.09 +3.13%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 208.78 -.19%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 179.20 +.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 14.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  85.0 -1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.21 -.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.
  • Yield Curve 57.25 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.50 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 138.8 +1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.80 -2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.7 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +3 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -89 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -1.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Biotech -2.7% 2) Alt Energy -2.2% 3) Video Gaming -1.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • VLO, FSLR, APPN, CLDR, NFE, VLDR, LYFT, DISH, DKNG, HGEN, EXPE, GH, AKAM, DYN, RDFN, ACCD, OCUL, AA, TTD, EVER, EGAN, CRNC, LMND, NET, IPOB, AMCX, PAND, ALLO, APPS, ARVN, BE, BCLI, FMCI, VRTX and FSLY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) TFC 2) IBB 3) VGK 4) AMCX 5) EQR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FSLY 2) TTD 3) ACB 4) UAL 5) ROKU
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) I-Banks +.9% 2) REITs +.6% 3) Retail +.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SNBR, REPL, USX, ARWR, ANAB, GME, ATEC, ZM, SHOO, MDRX, GRA, CARG, RAVN, AAXN, ANDE, BG, IOVA, PTON, SAGE and PE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AMCX 2) TRIP 3) TIF 4) UAA 5) Z
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CARS 2) AVXL 3) ZM 4) SONO 5) SCHW
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Thursday Watch

 Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.0 +1.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 39.75 +1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.39 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 338.0 +6.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.53 +1.17%
  • FTSE 100 futures -.42%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.30%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.64%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (SCHW)/.47
  • (CMC)/.56
  • (MS)/1.28
  • (TSM)/4.27
  • (WBA)/.96
After the Close:
  • (ISRG)//2.05
  • (MRTN)/.20
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for Oct. is estimated to fall to 14.0 versus 17.0 in Sept.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 825K versus 840K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 10550K versus 10976K prior.
  • The Import Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in Aug.
  • The Import Price Index Ex Petrol for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in Aug. 
  • The Export Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in Aug.
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 14.8 versus 15.0 in Sept.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Town Halls with President Trump/Joe Biden, Fed's Quarles speaking, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, China Yuan Loans, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (HPE) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Diminishing Stimulus Hopes, Virus Concerns, Biden Presidency/Tax Hike Fears, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.7 +2.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 306.0 -133.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.02 -.26%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.21 -1.15%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.7 +11.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 -4.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .69 -8.0%
  • NYSE Arms .59 -63.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.74 +1.75%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 805.87 -.65%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.68 +2.93%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 124.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.95 +2.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 207.60 +2.57%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 178.96 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.0 +.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.41 -.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 59.25 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.83 USD/Metric Tonne -2.25%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 137.6 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.80 -2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.2 +1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -31 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -79 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -66 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long