Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,182.84 -.07%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 34,066.0 -.44%

• NASDAQ 14,032.19 -.13%

• Russell 2000 2,274.02 +.27%

• S&P 500 High Beta 70.96 -.49%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 314.91 unch.

• Wilshire 5000 43,768.0 +.05%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,628.07 -.1%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,544.22 +.02%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 713.78 -.44%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,407.53 -1.8%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,977.50 -1.43%

• Transports 15,146.0 +1.4%

• Utilities 919.0 -.33%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 68.01 -3.22%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 54.65 +.67%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,394.89 -.31%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 939.70 -.33%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 465,351 -.24%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 598 -588

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -40.3 +3.5%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 492,678 -3.72%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,301,831 -1.65%

• Total Put/Call .78 -2.5%

• OEX Put/Call 1.59 -52.3%

• ISE Sentiment 118.0 +9.0 points

• NYSE Arms .99 +55.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,196.0 -93.0 points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 16.9 +5.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.4 +1.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.25 +.64%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.9 -.90%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,256.74 -.83%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.454 Trillion -.67%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +4.833 Million

• AAII % Bulls 52.70 -2.0%

• AAII % Bears 20.5 -16.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 195.71 +1.4%

• Crude Oil 61.9 -1.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 198.95 -2.4%

• Natural Gas 2.74 +1.67%

• Heating Oil 187.25 -1.1%

• Gold 1,777.48 +.07%
• Silver 26.04 +.34%
  

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 247.32 +1.36% 

• Copper 433.90 +4.2%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 427.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%

• China Iron Ore Spot 183.60 USD/Metric Tonne +3.6%

• Lumber 1,372.5 +5.98%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,228.68 +5.0%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 315.0 USD/Short Ton -.94%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +8.3% unch.
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +24.3% -.7 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 12.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +12.27 +3.9%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 45.21 -59.3%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 186.71 +1.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.80 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 144.5 +2.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.0 +3.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 97.2% chance of no change, 2.8% chance of rate hike on 4/28

• US Dollar Index 90.94 -.63%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,717.60 +.36%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 49,917.0 -20.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.73 -.04%

• Yield Curve 141.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.56% -2.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.782 Trillion +.36%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10.22 -2.2%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 153.72 -15.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.65 +1.5%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 191.19 -5.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.49 +2.98%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.82 -1.2%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 96.60 -.05%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.23 +.37%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34% -3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 16.0 -2.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.21 +1.95%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 361.0 +2.0%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 58.63 +1.89%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 165.35 +2.47%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 65.0 unch.
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 71.5 -.75 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $1.842 Trillion unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,219.0 +1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 651,000 -4.1%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.6% -10.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.97% -7.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 724,800 +8.55%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 54.2 +.3 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +13.4% +20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.89/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,750 +15.3%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,903.50 +2.7%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 +14.3%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 176.35 +9.7%

• Rail Freight Carloads 295,610 +5.4%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.1%
  

Leading Sectors

• Shipping +5.2%

• Computer Services +3.3%
  

• Medical Equipment +3.1%

• Alt Energy +2.8%

• Road & Rail +2.6%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Energy -2.6%
  

• Oil Service -2.9%

• Education -3.3%

• Paper -3.3%

• Tobacco -3.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (28)

• MVIS, BTX, OCGN, LAZR, TIPT, SKX, SIVB, FDS, DM, HZO, HEAR, CSL, AMTI, FOXF, SKLZ, BX, HCAT, CDAK, RH, AMWL, HUBS, REVG, EFX, KNL, ATI, CVM, SXT and IBP
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (2)

• INTC and QDEL
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Economic Optimism, Dollar Weakness, Oil Gain, Financial/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 -9.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,193.0 +170.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.78 +.57%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.9 -1.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.0 +1.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 -18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -3.8%

• NYSE Arms .95 -12.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.27 -1.28%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 452.90 -.94%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.29 -1.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.25 +2.25%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.14 -1.11%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.23 +.1%.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 16.0 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  64.75 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.82 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 141.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 183.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.80 +15.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 144.5 +12.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.4 +2.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis point
• 89.4% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 89.4% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +77 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/energy/biotech/medical/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -30.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 75.5% of Issues Advancing, 21.0% Declining
• 193 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 88.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,143.0 +119.0 points
• Vix 17.2 -8.1%
• Total Put/Call .79 -1.3%
• TRIN/Arms .83 -23.9%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.5 +3.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 38.5 +1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.81 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,977.0 -47.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.0 -.64%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.37%.

• S&P 500 futures +.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AXP)/1.48
• (ALV)/1.47
• (AZZ)/.57
• (GNTX)/.49
• (HON)/1.79
• (KMB)/1.94
• (RF)/.47
• (SLB)/.18
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The Markit US Manufacturing PMI for April is estimated to rise to 61.0 versus 59.1 in March. 
• The Markit US Services PMI for April is estimated to rise to 61.5 versus 60.4 in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for March is estimated to rise to 885K versus 775K in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Services PMI report and the FDA/CDC meeting on JNJ vaccine could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Tax Hike Fears, Dollar Strength, Technical Selling, Metals&Mining/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.5 +5.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,045.0 -28.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.06 -.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.0 +.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.7 +4.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 135.0 -15.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .76 +8.6%

• NYSE Arms .82 +51.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.06 +.99%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 456.46 +.10%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.29 -.24%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 102.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.5 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 166.65 +.58%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.10 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.25 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 16.75 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  64.25 -.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.78 -.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 139.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 180.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.30 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 132.0 +.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.7 +3.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
• 89.4% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 89.4% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -198 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -68 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -37 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/energy sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -2.3% 2) Gaming -2.1% 3) Gold & Silver -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WBT, SMAR, SKLZ, NTGR, HBAN, PLBY, DOW, EBS, DNMR, FSR, SEIC, SNBR and TIPT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IRBT 2) HIG 3) KSU 4) DISH 5) TJZ
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FSR 2) RIDE 3) IPG 4) MO 5) EBS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.0% 2) Retail +.9% 3) Airlines +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TDC, XM, CVM, NKLA, EFX, HZO, REKR, KRA, MVIS, GTLS, WISH, FUBO, ORIC, ARRY, POOL, LESL, MWK, GBX, ENPH, CRCT, CHPT, MTW, TRU, RPAY, ENPH, REPL, WISH, TWI, CRWD, LTHM, FSLR, T, AMRS, MUDS, TSCO, DHR, BX, ACEL, CHPT, MWK, WSO, CYH, HZAC, CROX and NDLS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CMG 2) DISH 3) LQD 4) LVS 5) IRBT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) XM 2) EFX 3) DHR 4) RHI 5) TDC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 57.1% of Issues Advancing, 38.8% Declining
• 206 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 89.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,138.0 +64.0 points
• Vix 17.2 -1.9%
• Total Put/Call .57 -18.6%
• TRIN/Arms .85 +57.4%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 -4.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.5 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.87 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,117.0 +43.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.15 +.77%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.27%.

• S&P 500 futures -.23%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ALK)/-3.75
• (AAL)/-3.91
• (AEP)/1.19
• (T)/.79
• (BIIB)/5.02
• (BX)/.72
• (CLF)/.34
• (DHI)/2.18
• (DHR)/1.69
• (DOW)/1.06
• (FCX)/.51
• (GPC)/1.14
• (HCA)/3.29
• (NUE)/3.08
• (ODFL)/1.59
• (DGX)/3.75
• (RS)/3.63
• (SAP)/.86
• (SNA)/3.07
• (LUV)/1.87
• (TSCO)/.96
• (UNP)/2.14
• (VLO)/-.77

After the Close:

• (OZK)/.86
• (INTC)/1.14 
• (STX)/1.31
• (SNAP)/-.05

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March is estimated to rise to 1.25 versus -1.09 in Feb.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 610K versus 576K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3640K versus 3731K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for March is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
• Existing Home Sales for March is estimated to fall to 6.14M versus 6.22M in Feb.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 28 versus 26 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB Meeting, EU Services PMI report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (GSX) investor day and the (SCHW) spring business update could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Medical/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.7 -5.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,057.0 -4.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.4 -.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.9 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.6 -4.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 150.0 +62.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .70 -12.5%

• NYSE Arms .62 -46.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.68 -.23%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 456.20 -.06%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.43 -.27%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 102.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.19 -2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.0 -1.63%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.10 -.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 17.25 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  64.5 -2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 -.75 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.86 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 142.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 180.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.90 -2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 131.6 -2.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.5 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
• 88.4% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 88.4% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +352 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +51 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/energy/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -22.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sector Declining
• 70.8% of Issues Advancing, 26.1% Declining
• 156 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 88.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,050.0 -10.0 points
• Vix 17.9 -4.3%
• Total Put/Call .73 -8.8%
• TRIN/Arms .69 -40.5%