Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,260.3 -.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 44,408.3 -1.1%

• NASDAQ 20,614.7 +.2%

• Russell 2000 2,2237.3 -.4%

• NYSE FANG+ 14,817.5 -1.3%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 210.5 +1.6%

• Wilshire 5000 61,970.1 -.3%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,301.4 unch.

• Russell 1000 Value 1,932.9 -.6%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 889.6 -1.9%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 251.5 +.7%
  

• NYSE Technology 6,226.9 -.09%

• Transports 16,215.3 +1.0%

• Utilities 1,063.7 +.9%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 144.9 +1.7%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 48.25 -.9%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 225.4 +.12%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 125.4 -.06%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 566,198 +.3%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.6 +59.5%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 969 -437

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -25.6 +3.2%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 234,693 +.74%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,989,440 +1.4%

• Total Put/Call .81 -29.9%

• OEX Put/Call 1.05 +11.9%

• ISE Sentiment 156.0 -13.0

• NYSE Arms .71 -35.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 76.5 +4.7%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .60 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.60 -8.0 basis points 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 16.0 -2.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .47 -22.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 17.4 -2.2%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.3 -2.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY)7.9 +3.4%

• Smart Money Flow Index 23,003.9 +.06%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  86.3 -13.0

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.072 Trillion -.08%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$10.261 Million

• AAII % Bulls 41.4 -8.0%

• AAII % Bears 35.6 +7.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 75.0 (EXTREME GREED) -3.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 300.37 -.11%

• Crude Oil 68.6/bbl. +1.7%

• Reformulated Gasoline 219.2 +3.1%

• Natural Gas 3.32 -2.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.6 euros/megawatt-hour +6.5%
  

• Heating Oil 245.5 +3.3% 
• Newcastle Coal 113.5 (1,000/metric ton) +1.1%

• Gold 3,356.3 +.6%
• Silver 38.5 +4.1%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 461.9 -1.3%

• Copper 561.2 +9.4%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 346.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.8 USD/Metric Tonne +4.7%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 8,675.0 USD/metric tonne +4.5%

• CME Lumber  667.0 +.3%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,373.8 -2.2%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 336.0 USD/Short Ton unch.

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% unch.

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8 +.4 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.52 +18.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 769.0 +109.3%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 8.6 +79.6%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $190.0 Billion($1,180.12 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$10.0 Billion
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +.6% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 281.55 +n/a:  Growth Rate +10.7% +n/a percentage point, P/E 22.3 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 448.09 +n/a: Growth Rate +20.0% +n/a percentage points, P/E 33.2 +n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.3 +5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.6 +3.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -3.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 6.7%(+.5 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 93.3%(-.5 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 7/30

• US Dollar Index 97.81 +.72%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,848.1 -.55%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 117,716.5 +8.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 194.0 +1.3%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 +.19%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 51.0 +5.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.42% +7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.614 Trillion +.05%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.423 Billion +.45%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.6 +.3%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 219.7 +5.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 85.0 +1.0 basis point
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.5 unch.

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 46.4 -3.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 148.07 +5.0%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 78.67 -4.7%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.75 -3.3%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 -.04%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 120.69 -.23%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.9% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.1% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.1% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.74 +12.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +5.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.25 basis points +1.0 basis point
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -25.5 -3.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.5 +2.3%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 380.3 +4.1% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 183.0 -17.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 57.96 -2.1%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 128.1 -1.3%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 154.6 +1.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 146.0 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 600.0 +2.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .54 -1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.5% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,425.2B -1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 235,500 -2.4%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.5 -4.4%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.73% -5.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 281,600 +9.4%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.1% +.2 percentage point
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +9.0% +17.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $251.8M +33.5%

• Nationwide Gas $3.17/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,465.0 +2.0%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,672.4/40 ft Box -5.0%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,313.7 -2.2%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 53.0 -20.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 238,536 -10.4%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,873,345 +17.0% 
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 48.0% -2.0 percentage points

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth unch.

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.5%

Leading Sectors

• Oil Service +3.8%

• Electric Vehicles +3.3%
• Homebuilding +3.3%

• Gambling +3.0%
  

• Electrification +2.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Insurance -2.7%
  

• Healthcare Providers -2.9%
  

• Computer Services -3.7%

• Cyber Security -4.0%
  

• Networking -4.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (34)

• NEGG, UMAC, AIRO, SDM, SBET, ATRO, MEXT, LEVI, HROW, KTOS, CLBR, AVAV, ADUR, RDW, DFDV, HNGE, CENTA, VEON, ASTS, PSMT, CENX, PFGC, FINV, LPG, GOOS, OR, SOFI, FUTU, REPL, PAAS, VC, HAL, CCIR and USM

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (13)

• WPP, RARE, FSS, VIST, ZETA, BHF, BYD, BYRN, OSCR, HELE, TMDX, DCTH and BGL

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slight Lower into Afternoon on Rising Long-Term Rates, US-Global Trade Deal Uncertainty, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.44%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.42% +7.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.3 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.6 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 281.55 +.17:  Growth Rate +10.7% unch., P/E 22.3 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 448.09 +.16: Growth Rate +20.0% unch., P/E 33.2 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .60 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.60 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 8.6 +.7
• US Yield Curve 51.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% -1.3 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 +3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 60.5% (-4.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 45.4%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• EU 56.0% -7.0 percentage points
• India 53.0% -13.0 percentage points.
• Japan 33.0% -9.0 percentage points. 
• South Korea  31.0% -11.0 percentage points.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -8 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -87 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FAST)/.28

After the Close: 

• (FBK)/.88

Economic Releases 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The (MA) business update could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• South Korea’s top trade official said negotiations with the US on tariffs have entered a critical phase.
• Trump said he plans to make a “major statement” on Russia, as the US prepares to send a volley of new American weapons to Ukraine via purchases from NATO allies. 
• Goldman Sachs strategists raised their forecast for Asian stocks, citing a more favorable macro environment and lower tariff risk.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• New York City Mayor Eric Adams raised more than $1 million for his reelection effort in a single night at a fundraiser in Manhattan, his campaign said.
• There's a surprise tucked inside President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" - the biggest increase in incentives to build affordable housing in a generation.
• Levi raised its revenue outlook, with the maker of 501 jeans expecting sales growth to outweigh the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge 

• Trump To Impose 35% Canadian Tariff, But USMCA Goods To Stay Exempt. 
• Dramatic Video: Anti-ICE Protester Fires Weapon At Federal Agents During Immigration Raid.
• Doug Casey On Why The Military-Industrial Complex Always Wins.
• Iron Ore Soars As China Pledges Crackdown On Industrial Overcapacity.
• California Might Stop Making Necessary Debt Payments For 2 Years. 
• FDA Approves Moderna's COVID-19 Vaccine For Some Children. 
• The Roots Of Leftist Rage. 
• Bitcoin Surges To New Record High, Momo Meltdown Continues As 'Uncertainty' Soars Again.

• @MarioNawful 

• NICOLE SHANAHAN DROPS BOMBSHELL ON GEOENGINEERING – WHISTLEBLOWER CONFIRMS WHAT WE'RE SEEING WITH OUR EYES. Nicole Shanahan just connected the dots everyone's been afraid to mention. A whistleblower came forward about secret geoengineering programs while catastrophic floods destroy American communities. The kicker? The White House already admitted it in 2023 – publishing reports on stratospheric aerosol injection and weather modification. They're literally spraying particles into our atmosphere. Texas camps underwater. North Carolina deluged. "100-year floods" every year. Shanahan's brave enough to say what we're all thinking: this isn't natural. NOAA spent millions on "solar radiation management." NASA provides the planes. They call it "research" while our weather goes apocalyptic.
• 67% OF AMERICANS DEMAND EPSTEIN FILES – EVEN 62% OF DEMOCRATS WANT THE TRUTH. May 2025 Rasmussen poll just destroyed the "conspiracy theory" narrative. Two-thirds of voters say releasing Epstein records is important, including massive bipartisan support. The bombshell: 62% of Democrats want the files public. So do 70% of Republicans and 71% of independents. This isn't a partisan issue – it's an American demand for truth.
• ELON BUILT A SUPERCOMPUTER IN 19 DAYS; FASTER THAN YOU CAN LOSE 5 POUNDS. While most people can’t even finish their homework on time, Elon and his xAI squad just built a 100,000-GPU AI supercomputer in less than 3 weeks. NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang called it “superhuman” and basically said Elon is the only guy on Earth who could pull it off. Normally, these things take 4 years. Elon did it between breakfast and lunch. And yes, it’s now the fastest AI cluster on the planet.

• @FBIDirectorKash

• Yesterday, in coordination with our international partners, Xu Zewei was arrested Italy. Xu is accused of hacking U.S. universities and stealing critical COVID-19 research on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party. The CCP’s relentless attacks on our institutions will not go unanswered. The FBI will hunt down those who threaten our national security—wherever they hide.

• @annvandersteel

• Well. THIS IS ODD…. Why would @RainmakerCorp and @ADoricko remove (scrub) their financiers off of their website? Was that a request by the financiers or was it a requested by others connected to the financiers? And now we have massive flooding in many other cities across America. Qui bono?

• @disclosetv

• NEW - China creates the first cyborg bee with tiny brain-control chip that controls movements with a 90% success rate, "could serve as military scouts."

• @charliekirk11

• Recent graduates in physics, computer science, and computer engineering have some of the highest unemployment rates among young people. Before demanding an unlimited flood of imported STEM workers from abroad to keep down wages, American companies should hire the graduates our colleges are already producing.

• @ShadowofEzra

• Former Bush official Catherine Fitts claims the Epstein files could expose a much larger cover-up involving Jeffrey Epstein, over $20 trillion missing from the Pentagon, and the government's Operation Warp Speed vaccine campaign. She says the truth about Epstein would also reveal where the missing trillions went and whose really behind the vaccine agenda. Fitts believes the same people who looted the system are now pushing experimental injections, and exposing that connection could destabilize the entire system. (video)

• @amuse 

• USAID: If you needed any more proof that Elon and Trump were right to dismantle USAID look no further. Former USAID officials are plotting to overthrow the democratically elected government here in the US - they admit it openly. We unleashed these madmen on the world and now they've come home to destroy us.. (pic)
• PRIMARY: The Islamic Marxists taking over the Democrat Party are going to primary Hakeem Jeffries and other NY Democrats.

• @lsferguson

• Another day goes by and the Senate hasn't passed the 9.4 billion dollar recission package passed by the House. It includes defunding USAID, PBS and NPR. Why hasn't this bill been voted on?

• @BillAckman

• A staggering $7.4 Trillion is now sitting in Money Market Funds, a new all-time high. Bullish. (graph)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna threatens to have CCP-linked billionaire Neville Singham's assets FROZEN after he refuses to appear before Congress regarding funding the LA riots. "If he decides to hide in CHINA, we will now be asking the State Dept and Treasury to freeze his assets/visa." NO MERCY! Make him appear!

• @Bannons_WarRoom

• REP. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R): This Epstein case should not be closed. Ghislaine Maxwell is in prison, but her black book with 2,000 names is sealed. The American people deserve answers. Asking questions is not disloyalty. It is simply demanding the truth. (video)

• @catturd2

• Stop f..king with viruses in labs. Stop f..king with the clouds. Stop f..king with our food. Stop f..king with vaccines. Stop f..king spying on us. We are not the enemy. Stop f..king trying to control us.

• @EYakoby

• BREAKING: Campaign finance records reveal 72% of Zohran Mamdani’s campaign cash came from out-of-state donors — not local supporters. His donors? Hollywood elites and tech billionaires. “Grassroots” was a complete lie. (pic)

• @WarClandestine

• Epstein’s former lawyer, Alan Dershowitz, puts his hand to God and swears he knows that documents are being suppressed to protect individuals pertaining to Epstein, and he knows who is doing the suppressing. I’m here to tell you right now, it’s not Trump. These people have been protected LONG before Trump showed up, or any of his appointees. Dershowitz’s comments here back up the position of the Trump FBI/DOJ that they are still looking for documents, and that many are protected under court order. 

• @Patriot_N_Chief

• Very interesting and complete opposite facial expressions by SECDEF and CIA Director Ratcliffe when Trump announces mores weapons and support to Ukraine. Thoughts? (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• And there it is California… Your homes were burned to the fucking ground to “contribute to a more equitable and resilient Los Angeles." California Gov. Gavin Newsom unveiled $101 million in funding for “multifamily low-income housing development” that will be Built on the ashes of the Palisades.The priority is for “geographic proximity to the fire perimeters of the Eaton, Hughes, and Palisades fires.” The Governor’s press office tried to do damage control and only made it worse… “Oh, it’s not just for the Palisades we burned, it’s for all the places we’ve burned under the guise of wildfires.” (pic)

• @HustleBitch_ 

• BREAKING: PRINCE ANDREW CLEARED TO TRAVEL - FBI ENDS EPSTEIN PROBE. The FBI has officially closed its investigation into Prince Andrew’s Epstein ties. He’s now free to travel the world, just months after Virginia Giuffre, his accuser, died by suicide. No charges. No accountability. Just a leaked memo quietly shutting it all down. And that infamous “client list”? Vanished with her. Andrew kept in touch with Epstein after his conviction. Emails prove it. But now? He walks. Elite immunity in full display. They don’t hide it anymore, they just outlast the outrage.
• 256 FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS - ACROSS 33 STATES - IN ONLY 6 DAYS. America is underwater. Since July 4th, the U.S. has lit up like a disaster map: * 33 states slammed. * 256 official warnings. * Nonstop chaos. This isn’t “weather.”. This is a f***ing pattern. And it’s nationwide. They say “climate.” We say coordinated. There is NOTHING normal about this weather. Flash floods hitting in waves. Rivers rising in hours. Sirens silent. Response delayed. Who floods a country like this… and why?
• WEATHER FOR SALE: MEET THE POLITICIAN WHO'S SEEDING STORMS OVER TEXAS & NEW MEXICO - WHILE TOWNS DROWN. Gary Walker isn’t predicting the weather, he’s modifying it. A former Texas State Representative, Walker now runs SOAR (Seeding Operations and Atmospheric Research), a company that flies planes into storm systems, igniting silver iodide and calcium chloride flares to force more rain from the sky. He’s not new to this. Walker is a veteran cloud seeder, operating across Texas, New Mexico, California, Oklahoma, and beyond. SOAR has been under state contracts for over 21 years, and is currently active in 7+ counties in the Southwest. Funded by the state. Paid with your tax dollars. Filed under: “precipitation enhancement.” So-called experts say cloud seeding didn’t cause these floods. But SOAR could be operating during flood season and no one’s publishing flight logs or asking who signed off. This isn’t just weather. It’s engineered. And someone’s getting paid.

• @TheDroneWarrior

• Hegseth tears up red tape, orders Pentagon to begin #drone surge at Trump's command.

• @VigilantFox

• REPORT: America is drowning in catastrophic floods, and evidence suggests these “natural disasters” may not be so natural after all. State records reveal Utah and New Mexico quietly reclassified cloud-seeded rain as “natural water,” shielding weather modification projects from lawsuits while entire communities are swept away. Flash floods are now hitting Chicago, New Mexico, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and North Carolina, leaving devastation in their wake. While Rainmaker denies its operations in Texas caused any floods, it’s impossible to rule them out entirely. Australia’s Rainmaking Control Act shows these operations can trigger disasters hundreds—even thousands—of miles away. If governments can manipulate the weather, don’t we deserve the truth—and the right to say no? (video)

• @GlobalMktObserv

• Professional investors are DUMPING US stocks: Institutional investors sold $2.3 BILLION in US equities last week. They have now sold in 8 out of the last 9 weeks. While institutions have been dumping, retail investors are still buying. (graph)

• @TonySeruga

• A Radical Company is Paying Supreme Court Justices Millions. —Daniel Greenfield. Jackson received a $893,750 advance for her memoir and is now reporting $2 million in profits last year. These would be record numbers for a Supreme Court Justice's biography from a book that hardly anyone had noticed when it came out. And while books can become unexpected successes once released, there was little sign of that happening. Penguin Random House will be publishing Justice Amy Coney Barrett's book for which she received a $2 million advance. That's money the publisher seems even less likely to recoup considering that Barrett is hated among leftists and has a mixed approval rating among conservatives. Past polls show that the majority of the country can't even name a single Supreme Court justice, yet they are receiving celebrity level advances for books no one cares about.

• @goddeketal

• SURPRISE, SURPRISE. Only a few people know that, in 2014, police arrested a man at Bill and Melinda Gates’ mansion in Seattle for possessing over 6,000 child rape photos. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 46.0 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• EU 63.0% -14.0 percentage points
• India 66.0% -11.0 percentage points.
• Japan 42.0% -2.0 percentage points. 
• South Korea  42.0% -7.0 percentage points.

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.99 -.21%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.32%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 77.2 +.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.36% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 +.7%.  
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.29%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.34%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.31%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Transport/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.8 -.8%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .45 -26.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 77.8 +2.1% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 -.42%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 192.7 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.9 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.1 -2.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 186.0 +1.0

• Total Put/Call .74 -14.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.12 -39.5%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$13.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.9 -.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.1 +.04%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 184.0 +3.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.5 -.5%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 125.8 -1.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 86.0 +1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.6 -.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 152.7 -1.1%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 80.1 -1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.95 -.15%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -25.5 basis points -.5 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 4.0 basis point +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 599.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 55.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.21%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.35% +1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.2 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.5 +2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.5 -.7

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.5 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +.6% -.9 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 281.38 -.03:  Growth Rate +10.7% unch., P/E 22.3 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 447.93 +.19: Growth Rate +20.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.3 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .58 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.63 -7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.9 +.9
• US Yield Curve 47.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.0% +2.5 percentage pionts

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 65.6% (-.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 43.4%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• EU 77.0% unch.
• India 64.0% -13.0 percentage points.
• Japan 43.0% -1.0 percentage point. 
• South Korea  44.0% -5.0 percentage points.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +144 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -59 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +102 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/utility/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Cyber Security -2.5% 2) Computer Services -1.1% 3) Video Gaming -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NU, SOUN, ERJ, PTC, VRT, FAF, FNF, ADSK, MOD, AXON, SLNO, HCSG, SEZL, BE, GRRR, BYRN, BMNR, HELE and RARE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MP 2) AAP 3) PROK 4) IGV 5) RARE

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HELE 2) RARE 3) ADSK 4) VRT 5) FAF

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLC 3) XLV 4) SMH 5) IGV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +8.8% 2) Electrification +3.9% 3) Alt Energy +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MP, METC, KLG, NEGG, USAR, UAL, AAL, DAL, ALGT, DFDV, PPTA, ALK, STNG, AEHR, SBET, ZTO, LUV, AMR, IE, DK, RVLV, LEU, CAR, AZZ, TNXP, SKYW, TREX, LPX, DQ, JOBY, TEX, ALB, BKSY, EL, BEKE, COGT, TER, INSP, GOOS, NCLH, BWLP, BOOT, HUT, SQM, TRIP, DRVN, BHP, ASC, HAYW, HLF, AMD, ENVX, CC, CPA, RYI, HPE, ZVRA, ATMU, ERO, FCX, XYF, OLN, AXGN, MARA, ZG, HUN, TREE, CCS, SOFI, BTI, OCUL, LEVI, HOOD, Z and VIST

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KLG 2) ERJ 3) LAC 4) PCG 5) LEVI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) UAL 2) KLG 3) GNS 4) MP 5) DAL

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) XLF 3) CLE 4) XBI 5) MSTY

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume