Stocks Slight Lower into Afternoon on Rising Long-Term Rates, US-Global Trade Deal Uncertainty, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.44%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.42% +7.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.3 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.6 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 281.55 +.17:  Growth Rate +10.7% unch., P/E 22.3 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 448.09 +.16: Growth Rate +20.0% unch., P/E 33.2 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .60 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.60 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 8.6 +.7
• US Yield Curve 51.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% -1.3 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 +3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 60.5% (-4.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 45.4%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• EU 56.0% -7.0 percentage points
• India 53.0% -13.0 percentage points.
• Japan 33.0% -9.0 percentage points. 
• South Korea  31.0% -11.0 percentage points.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -8 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -87 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long