Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The Trump administration’s country-by-country tariffs will take effect Aug. 1, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, signaling some breathing room for US trading partners ahead of a July 9 deadline previously set by the president.
• US trading partners scrambled to finalize trade deals or lobby for extra time as President Donald Trump said he’s notifying about a dozen countries on Monday of the new tariff levels. 
• South Korean and US trade officials have discussed extending the July 9 deadline for trade deals in a last-minute bid to avert sweeping tariffs from President Donald Trump. 
• In the days leading up to President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariffs deadline, equity investors having flashbacks of Liberation Day showed little concern. 
• Prime Minister Mark Carney said a new oil pipeline to Canada’s West Coast is “highly likely” to be proposed as a nation-building project. 
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday made his first public appearance since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran began, attending a mourning ceremony on the eve of Ashoura. 
• Japanese workers’ real wages dropped by the most since September 2023 as inflation continued to outpace salary growth. 
• OPEC+ has announced a surprise increase in oil production, which is expected to lead to a surplus later this year and put pressure on prices for producers.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.

• @ZeroHedge 

• What Prevents Trump From Implementing The "Chainsaw" Approach Like Milei?
• Tchir: The Risk For Stocks Is That The Administration Decides It Was Correct All Along On Tariffs.
• Zelensky's Latest Call With Trump Was 'Most Productive' He's Ever Had. 
• Tropical Storm Chantal Makes Landfall - All Eyes On Possible NYC Path.
• Thailand to Offer US More Trade Concessions to Avert 36% Tariff: BBG.
• Carlson Teases Interview With Iran's President: 'God-Given Right To All Information Americans Can Gather'. 
• 300% Increase In American Investors Defrauded By 'Pump'n'Dump' Stock Fraud: FBI. 
• 'Fact Checkers' Claim NY Mayoral Candidate's "Seize The Means Of Production" Remark Isn't Communist. 
• Trump comments on Musk starting a political party. 
• Retail Buying And Participation Blow Away All Records In H1 2025. (graph)  
• To Make America Great Again, Start Here.
• Texas Floods Kill 50; Search Ongoing For Dozens Of Missing Campers.
• Which Countries Invest In The US The Most?   
• UBS Finds "Chilling Opportunity" In Data Center Cooling.
• Jaguar Sales Plummet By 97.5% After Awful They/Them Rebrand.
• France's Fiscal Reckoning: Is The Eurozone's Second Giant Next In Line?  
• US Reassesses Relations With Colombia As Crime And Cocaine Surge Under Leftist Regime. 
• CNN Stunned As Majority Of Americans Back Trump's Mass Deportation Plan
  . 
• Zohran Mamdani's father believes: The Allies and Nazis had the same goal Abraham Lincoln was Hitler's inspiration White people are the oppressors, America is the root of all evil BLM is the resistance. Blah blah blah. Another wealthy leftist who hates America. Now we know who Zohran gets it from. (video)

• @CNBC 

• Bessent: Tariffs will 'boomerang' back to April levels by Aug. 1 for countries without deals.

• @WSJ 

• Exclusive: Oracle is the latest tech giant to offer the Trump administration a significant discount on its services.
• Meet the startups that are trying to understand artificial-intelligence chatbots and help companies sell online in an era when most consumers use AI for search. 

• @FoxNews

• President @realDonaldTrump calls it "ridiculous" to start a third party after
  @elonmusk launches the "America Party." (video)
• President @realDonaldTrump says his administration is working "very closely" with Texas amid the devastating flash floods. 
• Dick Eastland, the camp director and co-owner of Camp Mystic in Hunt, Texas, reportedly died while trying to save young campers during catastrophic flooding. 
• Johnson says megabill will be 'jet fuel' for economy; teases 2 future bills within next year.
• Iran at 'decision point' after Trump strikes on nuclear program, says US NATO ambassador. 

• @GatewayPundit

• Congress trades stocks because the system is rigged. The STOCK Act was supposed to stop insider deals, but it’s a joke—$200 fines for late disclosures while politicians like Pelosi and Tuberville rack up triple-digit returns. They write the rules, then exploit them. The ETHICS Act to ban trading has been buried by both parties for years. Real reform? They’ll never vote away their golden ticket. Washington’s not broken—it’s a well-oiled grift machine. Cut the corruption, not the checks. See which lawmakers profit while ethics bills gather dust: 
• Fighter Jets Intercept 11th Aircraft Near Trump’s Bedminster Golf Club Over Fourth of July Weekend.
• Trump-Hating Billionaire Mark Cuban and Sellout Anthony Scaramucci Signal Interest in Joining Elon Musk’s New “America Party”.
• WATCH: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Delivers a Brutal Reality Check to Elon Musk as Tesla CEO Looks to Sabotage GOP with Formation of New Political Party.
• Deep State Election Trickery not being forgiven nor forgotten.  
• Major Investment Firm Pulls Support from Tesla, Postpones ETF Launch After Elon Musk Launches New Political Party
  .

• @MarioNawful  

• BREAKING - FBI: "EPSTEIN WASN’T MURDERED, THERE'S NO CLIENT LIST". Yep, just a regular ol’ convicted sex offender billionaire who died in jail under totally normal, not-at-all-suspicious circumstances. Apparently, the FBI and the Justice Department think Epstein didn’t blackmail anyone, didn’t keep a shady list of VIPs, and totally wasn’t murdered. Nothing to see here, folks… except that nobody is buying it.
• CHINA’S BUILDING A “SPY SCHOOL” NEXT TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND. London's getting a giant new Chinese embassy with room for 200 spies and actual underground “spy dungeons,” and that’s not a movie plot. It’s going up near top-secret data centers and money central, and parts of it are already marked “do not inspect.” Critics say it’s not a cultural center, it’s a “campus for spies with dorms,” and Labour’s just handing over the keys.

• @C_3C_3

• 2020: No arrests. Covid: No arrests. Butler: No arrests. Epstein: No arrests. Autopen: No arrests. Benghazi: No arrests. January 6: No arrests. DOGE Findings: No arrests. Russia Collusion: No arrests: Etc. This is why we don’t trust DC and won’t until people pay.

• @ScottPresler

• I’m Vehemently Opposed to the Creation of a Third Party!!! Let me preface this by saying I support both President Trump & Elon Musk. I think I speak for many — hopefully — that we wish both “dads” can come to an agreement & work together for successful 2026 midterm elections. It is also important to note that, while having a Republican White House, House, & Senate, we must be cognizant that — even w/ a majority — it still proves a challenge to get *every* single thing Republicans want in budget bills. Arguments Against a Third Party: (list)

• @officer_Lew

• JUST IN: “If Republicans lose the House in 2026 — which the creation of a third party is likely to do — there will be no budget for DHS & to deport criminal illegal aliens. We will likely lose 2028 & there goes control over the Census. The border opens up again & it was all for naught.” -@ScottPresler.

• @RedpillDrifter

• Texas gives out weather modification permits and licenses. Research: Texas Weather Modification act of 1967. (pic)

• @matt_vanswol

• #BREAKING: Texas Parks and Wildlife have released footage from a helicopter of the Guadalupe River after the flooding... ...I have no words. The footage coming out of Texas looks so much like what happened here during Hurricane Helene. So awful. (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• This is what happened after cloud seeding triggered massive flooding in Dubai. The UAE tried to force rain and drowned their own city in the process. One week after they modified the weather, areas were still flooded. (video)
• "My name is Augustus Doricko. I'm the CEO and founder of Rainmaker. We're a cloud seeding company that is enhancing precipitation via advanced radar and also drones." (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• Clearly, patriots do not have control of these dangerous weapons of mass destruction. President Trump has patriots in all the key agencies… so why are these events still occurring? When RFK Jr was asked about Chemtrails, he said he doesn’t know who’s doing it… he “thinks” DARPA is responsible. How do we not know who precisely is spraying our skies and manipulating the weather? And why can’t we stop it? (video)

• @ExxAlerts

• BREAKING: Video emerges of home being completely SWEPT AWAY WITH PEOPLE INSIDE. In Kerrville, Texas. (video)

• @DravenDon

• Multiple States: Nine U.S. states currently conduct cloud seeding operations, authorized by state governments or water management agencies to increase precipitation, particularly in drought-prone areas. These states include California, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. For example: Idaho: The Idaho Water Resource Board authorizes cloud seeding from November 1 to April 30 to enhance snowpack, a critical water source. Operations use aircraft and ground-based generators with silver iodide.

• @Liz_Churchill10

• Former CIA’s John Brennan, admits on video that ‘Geo-engineering’ is deliberately real. (video)

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,025,775 Reports(+454 from prior report) Through May 30th, 2025.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 unch.. 
• China Sovereign CDS 47.75 -1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%.
• Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 27.0% -4.0 percentage points. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August: India 85.0% +28.0 percentage points, Canada 69% +16.0 percentage points 

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.03 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.16 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.1 +1.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.33% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.3 +.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.09%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.42%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.51%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.