Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Volume: Around Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -2.0%
- S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .30 -56.3%
- Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 82.6 +4.6%
- Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 -.23%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 194.74 +.23%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.52 +.27%
- CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.7 -1.8%
- ISE Sentiment Index 193.0 +7.0
- Total Put/Call .85 +6.3%
- NYSE Arms 1.07 +40.8%
- NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$145.6M
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.2 +.2%
- US Energy High-Yield OAS 369.8 -1.3%
- Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 197.0 -4.0
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.4 -.7%
- Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 122.4 -2.6%
- Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 85.0 +3.0 basis points
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 -.7%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 151.2 +.2%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 77.1 +.3%
- China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.2 +.06%
- 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -25.0 basis points unch.
- 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 8.0 basis point +.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.5 unch.
- MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 591.0 +1.0 basis point
- Avg. Auto ABS OAS 53.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.11%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.41% +2.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.4 -2.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.5 +2.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.1 -.6 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(153 of 500 reporting) +9.0% +.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.02 -.09: Growth Rate +10.8% unch., P/E 22.5 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +22.4% -23.1 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 452.85 +.39: Growth Rate +20.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.3 +.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 +9.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 +5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.5 -.4
- US Yield Curve 48.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.2% -2.1 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.73% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.73 -4.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 60.5% (+.6 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 50.4%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
- Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?
- EU 64.0% +7.0 percentage points.
- India 36.0% +15.0 percentage points.
- South Korea 57.0% -4.0 percentage points.
- Mexico 32.0% +11.0 percentage points.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -56 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -30 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +83 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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