Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Utility Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.1%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.34% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.7 +1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.3 -.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.7 +3.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(290 of 500 reporting) +9.5% +2.5 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.82 -.05:  Growth Rate +11.1% unch., P/E 22.4 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +26.0% +3.6 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 457.1 +.57: Growth Rate +21.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.7 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .48 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.53 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.9 unch.
• US Yield Curve 40.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% -60.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.5% -1.9 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% +19.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.72% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 -5.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 47.0% (-1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for DEC. 10th meeting: 42.4%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• China 11.0% -9.0 percentage points
• Canada 19.0% +6.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 91.0% +53.0 percentage points. 

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -430 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/utility sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long