Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The Office of the US Trade Representative opened an investigation into Brazil over its trade practices and whether they are unfairly restricting US exports to the country. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• The precious metal has been supported by anxieties over the fallouts of trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and strong inflows to exchange-traded funds and central banks.
• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said policymakers will likely need to hold interest rates steady for a bit longer to fully cool inflation.
• Kevin Hassett, one of President Donald Trump’s longest-serving economic aides, is the early frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chief next year.
• Donald Trump said that he was likely to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals as soon as the end of the month and that levies on semiconductors could come soon as well.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• Goldman Warns of "Accelerated Property Price Declines" Across Chinese Cities. 
• Another 'Conspiracy Theory' Comes True: California Bill Passes To Buy Fire-Ravaged Palisades For Low-Income Apartments.
• The Threat From Far-Right Extremists Pales In Comparison To Jihadi Terrorist. 
• This Weekend In Japan, A Referendum On Financial Repression.
• Why Are Taxpayers Still Funding These Injection Mandates? 
• The Cryptographic Fix For US Elections Is Still Sitting On The Shelf.
• NEW: Republican Rep. Tim Burchett says we should publicly hang whoever was involved with Epstein's crimes, says he doesn't believe the Trump DOJ. Question: "Should there be an investigation or a special counsel investigation?" Burchett: "Just find them guilty and hang them publicly. That's not over the top either." Question: "You don't believe what the Justice Department is saying?" Burchett: "No, I don't." (video)
• Tropical Threat Brewing Off Florida, Gulf Of America Offshore Oil & Gas Rigs In Crosshairs.
• Semis & CPI Spark Surge In Big-Tech & The Buck; Bullion, Bitcoin, & Bonds Dumped.

• @CNBC 

• Wednesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Trump says tariff letters for smaller countries coming soon; rates likely over 10%.
• Central banks are increasingly buying gold from local mines as prices surge.
• Westinghouse plans to build 10 large nuclear reactors in U.S., interim CEO tells Trump.

• @MikeBenzCyber

• So Fauci was pardoned by the White House Covid-19 coordinator, who made tens of millions of dollars off financial bets exploiting federal government healthcare policies.

• @WallStreetApes

• THERE IT IS. Gavin Newsom admits that HALF of all agricultural workers in California ARE ILLEGAL He says roughly 41% of construction workers ARE ILLEGAL. The real number of illegals in California is astronomical. THIS is why California is still Blue. Illegals. This is INSANE! (video)

• @GenFlynn

• @realDonaldTrump there are tens of millions of your supporters to include myself that this is all we needed to hear. The EPSTEIN AFFAIR is an ugly stain on our society and those who abuse children, regardless of their status in life, must be held accountable. The American people realize the weight and monumental challenges on your shoulders, but we also know you are the right person at the right time in U.S. history! Thank you for hearing us.

• @bennyjohnson

• Just got off the phone with top federal law enforcement contact. The change in approach to Epstein has been dramatic. Expect more disclosures. Some very powerful people inside Admin are now pushing for a Special Counsel and a full press briefing on Epstein findings. Important to note, this drastic change happened after @charliekirk11 and a number of other powerful MAGA Voices pushed back on the handling of the Epstein case this weekend at the Turning Point conference. They were met with massive roars and applause from the 7000 gathered that could not be ignored. In short: Our voices are being heard, power to the people.
• BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene debunks FAKE NEWS that House Republicans unanimously voted to block the release of the Epstein Files: "That is not true. It was a procedural vote. We voted against Democrats having House floor control. It's a misunderstanding." (video)

• @GordonGChang

• No big deal, just Microsoft using engineers in China to help maintain the Defense Department’s computer systems. I couldn’t possibly imagine anything wrong with this. Someone must go to jail for this: Engineers in China maintain the Pentagon’s computer systems.
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• @unusual_whales

• BREAKING: Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna confirms the imminent firing of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

• @rawsalerts

• #BREAKING: Officials says that Metadata from the raw Epstein prison video shows approximately 2 minutes and 53 seconds were removed from one of two stitched together clips. The cut starts right at the missing minute.

• @C_3C_3

• Ask yourself this… Why does Karen Bass have time to fight ICE for illegals and Gavin Newsom has time to campaign but they only have issued 1% of the permits needed to rebuild after the Palisades fires? Weird!? (video)
• Reminder… Nancy Pelosi outperformed Warren Buffet over the last 10 years. Pelosi’s stock portfolio grew by 720%. Buffett's stock portfolio grew by 185%. Pelosi had almost 4 times the gains. Buffett is known as one of the greatest portfolio managers of all time. Criminal. 

• @BrianEntin

• The CEO of “Crowds on Demand” tells me he was offered $20,000,000 to recruit demonstrators for the anti-Trump protests on Thursday. (video)

• @annvandersteel  

• Florida's largest solar scam company is in Jacksonville, which is owned by the CCP and previously retained Mercury Public Affairs. @SusieWiles was co-chair for Mercury Public Affairs during the same period as the agreement. Wow!! I’m sure there’s a REASONABLE explanation for this. Perhaps @TuckerCarlson would be able to get a sit down with @SusieWiles and ask?

• @CheddarFlow

• Fund managers still remain underweight US equities. (graph)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: It is currently UNCLEAR whether the Senate Republicans have the minimum 51 votes to advance President Trump's DOGE cuts package on USAID, NPR, PBS, etc., per POLITICO. Deadline: Friday. DO NOT MESS THIS UP!!!

• @beefinitiative

• BREAKING: CONGRESS MOVES TO GRANT VACCINE-LIKE IMMUNITY TO PESTICIDE GIANTS! SECTION 453 WOULD SHUT DOWN EPA REVIEWS AND SHIELD MONSANTO-BAYER FROM 67,000 CANCER LAWSUITS!

• @RodDMartin

• TRUMP TO ANNOUNCE $70 BILLION INVESTMENT IN PITTSBURGH. Trump is unleashing a $70 billion energy + AI investment. Natural gas. Data centers. AI power. America First meets the future. Here’s what you need to know. (thread)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.0 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 46.75 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.65 USD/Metric Tonne +.74%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• EU 40.0% +3.0 percentage points.
• India 57.0% +13.0 percentage points.
• Japan 22.0% +3.0 percentage points
• South Korea  37.0% -6.0 percentage points.

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.79 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 77.1 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.48% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.6%.  
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.06%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.12%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.