Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on BBB Passage Hopes, US Economic Data, Sector Rotation, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.07%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.25% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% +5.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.43%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.4 +10.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.3 +1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.2 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +2.2% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.57 +.13:  Growth Rate +10.3% unch., P/E 22.1 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 446.03 +.18: Growth Rate +19.4% unch., P/E 32.8 -.8
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .47 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.53 +57.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.4 +.1
• US Yield Curve 47.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% -.4 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.1% +1.4 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 72.8% (-2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 55.8%(-1.9 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 40.0% -12.0 percentage points
• Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 60.0% -7.0 percentage points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -97 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -137 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +163 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my utility/industrial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long