Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Fed Chairman Powell's Commentary, Rising Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Alt Energy/Commodity Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.3%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.37% +5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.5 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.4 +5.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.7 +10.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.2 -1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(231 of 500 reporting) +7.0% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.87 +.13:  Growth Rate +11.1% unch., P/E 22.5 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +22.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 456.53 +.48: Growth Rate +21.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.3 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .38 -27.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.9 -.1
• US Yield Curve 43.25 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.9% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.4% +2.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.72% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.80 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 51.9% (+16.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 49.0%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• China 20.0% -36.0 percentage points
• South Korea  56.0% -17.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 19.0% -9.0 percentage points. 

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -31 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long