Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.7 -.12%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% -1.0 basis point
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.5 euros/megawatt-hour +.44%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.5 +1.1 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.3 -1.2 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.2 -.9 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(167 of 500 reporting) +8.3% -.7 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.31 +.29: Growth Rate +10.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.5 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +22.4% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 454.56 +1.71: Growth Rate +20.5% +.5 percentage point, P/E 33.3 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 unch.
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.63 +16.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.8 +.3
- US Yield Curve 47.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.2% -1.0 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.73% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -10.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 62.3% (+3.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 50.0%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
- Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?
- EU 71.0% +12.0 percentage points
- India 29.0% +4.0 percentage points.
- South Korea 50.0% +1.0 percentage point.
- Mexico 29.0% -3.0 percentage points.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -12 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +145 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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