Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.14%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% +4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +4.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.08%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.7 unch.
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.5 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.7 -2.3 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(116 of 500 reporting) +8.9% +1.5 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.11 +.20: Growth Rate +10.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +45.5% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 452.46 +.50: Growth Rate +19.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 -.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .53 -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.9 -.4
- US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.3% +1.4 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.73% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 -8.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 57.9% (-.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 48.4%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
- Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?
- EU 54.0% +16.0 percentage points.
- India 16.0% +7.0 percentage points.
- South Korea 65.0% +14.0 percentage points.
- Canada 26.0% +2.0 percentage points.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +544 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +370 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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