Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Optimism, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Technical Buying, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.23 +.11%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% +5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.0 -7.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.1 -1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.8 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +1.7% -.5 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.68 +.11:  Growth Rate +10.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% +10.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 446.22 +.19: Growth Rate +19.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.2 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .48 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 -7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.5 +.1
• US Yield Curve 49.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.9% -3.2 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.59 +3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 72.3% (-.9 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 55.1%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 34.0% -3.0 percentage points
• Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 60.0% unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +3 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -135 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long