Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.06%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% +6.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 96.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.6 euros/megawatt-hour +.09%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.6 +6.4 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.4 +5.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.5 -.3 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +1.7% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.70 +.02: Growth Rate +10.4% unch., P/E 22.2 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% -9.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 446.48 +.26: Growth Rate +19.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.2 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .53 +5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 +10.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.7 +.2
- US Yield Curve 46.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% +.1 percentage point
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.7% +.8 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 +3.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 68.1% (-3.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 43.6%(+15.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
- US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 36.0% +5.0 percentage points
- Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 94.0% +20.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +370 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -117 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/industrial/tech/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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