Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.09%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.43% +2.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.5 euros/megawatt-hour -.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.8 -.5 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.1 +.5 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.6 -1.4 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(21 of 500 reporting) +.8% +.2 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 281.80 +.25: Growth Rate +10.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 448.90 +.81: Growth Rate +20.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.1 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .59 -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -16.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 9.5 +.9
- US Yield Curve 53.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.0% -.8 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 +2.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 59.2% (+1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 46.5%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
- Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?
- EU 46.0% +2.0 percentage points
- India 49.0% -5.0 percentage points.
- Japan 19.0% -3.0 percentage points.
- South Korea 43.0% +13.0 percentage points.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +111 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -50 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +170 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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