Monday, July 14, 2025

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.09%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.43% +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.5 euros/megawatt-hour -.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.8 -.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.1 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.6 -1.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(21 of 500 reporting) +.8% +.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 281.80 +.25:  Growth Rate +10.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 448.90 +.81: Growth Rate +20.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.1 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .59 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -16.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 9.5 +.9
  • US Yield Curve 53.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.0% -.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 59.2% (+1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 46.5%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
  • Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 
  • EU 46.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • India 49.0% -5.0 percentage points.
  • Japan 19.0% -3.0 percentage points. 
  • South Korea  43.0% +13.0 percentage points.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +111 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -50 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +170 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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